Predictions / Football / England. National League - North / Harborough Town vs Hereford

Prediction Audit: Harborough Town vs Hereford Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Harborough Town Harborough Town
Sep 08, 2026 - 18:45
0 1.32
3 1.28
xG Accuracy: 43%
Hereford Hereford

The model missed the final outcome (Hereford win 0–3).

The model had projected Harborough Town at 36.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Harborough Town Hereford ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-3 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Harborough Town higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Harborough Town -11.9 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Harborough Town 36.1% 48.0% -11.9 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.6% 24.5% +5.1 pp Model Higher
Hereford 34.2% 27.4% +6.8 pp Model Higher

The closing market estimates Harborough Town's win probability at 48.0%, compared with the model's estimate of 36.1%, a difference of 11.9 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Hereford win 0–3.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Harborough Town than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned Harborough Town; match finished Hereford

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Harborough Town by 11.9 percentage points (48.0% vs model 36.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 08, 2026 · 18:45 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Harborough Town 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Hereford 34.2%
    • xG · Harborough Town 1.32 — Hereford 1.28
  2. Sep 08, 2026 · 18:14 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Harborough Town 1.93 · Draw 3.78 · Hereford 3.38
    • Implied 1X2 · Harborough Town 48.0% · Draw 24.5% · Hereford 27.4%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 08, 2026 · 18:45 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Harborough Town 1.93 · Draw 3.78 · Hereford 3.38
    • Implied 1X2 · Harborough Town 48.0% · Draw 24.5% · Hereford 27.4%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 08, 2026 · 18:45 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Hereford win · 0–3
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (12 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 40/100
Betting Confidence 45/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 02, 2026 · 02:28 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-6580891

Closing Odds 1.93
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Hereford win · Harborough Town 0–3 Hereford
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: National League - North
  • Fixture: Harborough Town vs Hereford
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-08 18:45:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.2%
  • xG (showing): Harborough Town 1.32 — Hereford 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 39.1% · Probability edge: +12.7 pts · Est. EV: +28.0%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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National League - North National League - North — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Hereford 9 7 1 1 22
2 Oxford City 9 6 1 2 19
3 Macclesfield 9 5 3 1 18
4 Spalding United 9 5 2 2 17
5 Hebburn Town 9 5 2 2 17
6 South Shields 8 5 2 1 17
7 Buxton 9 5 1 3 16
8 Bedford Town 9 5 0 4 15
9 Chester 9 4 2 3 14
10 Morecambe 9 4 1 4 13
11 Merthyr Town 9 3 4 2 13
12 King's Lynn Town 9 4 1 4 13
13 Harborough Town 9 3 3 3 12
14 Worksop Town 9 4 0 5 12
15 Scarborough Athletic 9 3 2 4 11
16 Chorley 9 3 2 4 11
17 Marine 9 3 0 6 9
18 AFC Telford United 9 2 3 4 9
19 Hednesford Town 9 2 3 4 9
20 Southport 9 2 2 5 8
21 Brackley Town 8 2 2 4 8
22 Radcliffe 9 2 0 7 6
23 Darlington 1883 9 2 0 7 6
24 Spennymoor Town 9 1 3 5 6
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Hereford 9 21 4 +17 22
2 Buxton 9 18 14 +4 16
3 Oxford City 9 17 6 +11 19
4 Hebburn Town 9 15 15 0 17
5 King's Lynn Town 9 15 15 0 13
6 Scarborough Athletic 9 14 11 +3 11
7 Chorley 9 14 16 -2 11
8 Spalding United 9 13 6 +7 17
9 Morecambe 9 13 8 +5 13
10 Bedford Town 9 13 13 0 15
11 Hednesford Town 9 13 16 -3 9
12 Macclesfield 9 12 6 +6 18
13 Merthyr Town 9 11 9 +2 13
14 Southport 9 11 18 -7 8
15 Darlington 1883 9 11 20 -9 6
16 Harborough Town 9 10 11 -1 12
17 Marine 9 10 11 -1 9
18 Chester 9 9 8 +1 14
19 South Shields 8 9 10 -1 17
20 Worksop Town 9 9 12 -3 12
21 Spennymoor Town 9 9 19 -10 6
22 AFC Telford United 9 8 10 -2 9
23 Radcliffe 9 8 16 -8 6
24 Brackley Town 8 7 16 -9 8
National League - North England. National League - North Predictions