Prediction Audit: Paderborn II vs Borussia Dortmund II Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Paderborn II

Sep 21, 2026 - 16:00

1 1.35

1 1.25

xG Accuracy: 85%

Borussia Dortmund II

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).

The model had projected Paderborn II at 37.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Paderborn II Draw ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Outcome	Model	Closing Market	Difference	Signal
Paderborn II	37.5%	29.1%	+8.4 pp	Model Higher
Draw	29.6%	25.8%	+3.9 pp	Aligned
Borussia Dortmund II	32.9%	45.1%	-12.3 pp	Market Higher

The closing market estimates Borussia Dortmund II's win probability at 45.1%, compared with the model's estimate of 32.9%, a difference of 12.3 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Draw 1–1.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Borussia Dortmund II than the current fair estimate.

Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
1X2: model leaned Paderborn II; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Paderborn II by 12.3 percentage points (49.8% vs model 37.5%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

Sep 21, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Paderborn II 37.6% · Draw 29.6% · Borussia Dortmund II 32.9%
- xG · Paderborn II 1.35 — Borussia Dortmund II 1.25
Sep 21, 2026 · 15:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Paderborn II 3.15 · Draw 3.56 · Borussia Dortmund II 2.03
- Implied 1X2 · Paderborn II 29.1% · Draw 25.8% · Borussia Dortmund II 45.1%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Sep 21, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Paderborn II 3.15 · Draw 3.56 · Borussia Dortmund II 2.03
- Implied 1X2 · Paderborn II 29.1% · Draw 25.8% · Borussia Dortmund II 45.1%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Sep 21, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Kickoff
FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor

Historical Decision Monitor

Outcome Missed

Pre-match metrics (historical context)

Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate

Validation: Warning
Large market gap (12 pp)

Evidence ★★★★★

No strong statistical edge
Market has already priced much of the edge
Validation warning

Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 13/100

Monitoring Confidence 20/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 15, 2026 · 02:49 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8839568

Closing Odds 2.03

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Draw · Paderborn II 1–1 Borussia Dortmund II

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?: This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?: xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?: Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?: Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: Regionalliga - West
Fixture: Paderborn II vs Borussia Dortmund II
Kickoff: 2026-09-21 16:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 37.6% · Draw 29.6% · Away 32.9%
xG (showing): Paderborn II 1.35 — Borussia Dortmund II 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
Model: 51.8% · Implied: 39.9% · Probability edge: +11.9 pts · Est. EV: +22.2%
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Regionalliga - West — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Rot-weiss Oberhausen	10	8	1	1	25
2	Borussia Dortmund II	10	6	4	0	22
3	Borussia M'gladbach II	10	6	2	2	20
4	FC Gutersloh	10	6	2	2	20
5	Westfalia Rhynern	10	5	2	3	17
6	Bergisch Gladbach	10	5	1	4	16
7	Schalke 04 II	10	5	0	5	15
8	Köln II	10	4	2	4	14
9	Paderborn II	10	3	4	3	13
10	Sportfreunde Siegen	9	3	4	2	13
11	FC Bocholt	10	3	4	3	13
12	Bonner SC	10	2	6	2	12
13	SG Wattenscheid 09	10	2	3	5	9
14	Hilden	10	2	3	5	9
15	Bochum II	10	2	2	6	8
16	Wiedenbrück	9	2	2	5	8
17	SV Rodinghausen	10	1	3	6	6
18	Sportfreunde Lotte	10	0	3	7	3

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Rot-weiss Oberhausen	10	24	9	+15	25
2	Borussia M'gladbach II	10	23	10	+13	20
3	FC Gutersloh	10	22	10	+12	20
4	FC Bocholt	10	21	22	-1	13
5	Borussia Dortmund II	10	20	10	+10	22
6	Schalke 04 II	10	20	20	0	15
7	Köln II	10	19	18	+1	14
8	Paderborn II	10	19	18	+1	13
9	Bonner SC	10	19	19	0	12
10	Westfalia Rhynern	10	19	20	-1	17
11	Bergisch Gladbach	10	17	18	-1	16
12	Sportfreunde Siegen	9	15	14	+1	13
13	SG Wattenscheid 09	10	13	19	-6	9
14	SV Rodinghausen	10	13	19	-6	6
15	Wiedenbrück	9	12	20	-8	8
16	Hilden	10	12	21	-9	9
17	Bochum II	10	11	18	-7	8
18	Sportfreunde Lotte	10	6	20	-14	3