Predictions / Football / Germany. Regionalliga - West / SG Wattenscheid 09 vs SV Rodinghausen

Prediction Audit: SG Wattenscheid 09 vs SV Rodinghausen Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

SG Wattenscheid 09 SG Wattenscheid 09
Sep 02, 2026 - 17:00
2 1.26
1 1.34
xG Accuracy: 74%
SV Rodinghausen SV Rodinghausen

The model missed the final outcome (SG Wattenscheid 09 win 2–1).

The model had projected SV Rodinghausen at 37.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 SV Rodinghausen SG Wattenscheid 09 ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-1 ✔ Correct

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Exact score 2–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned SV Rodinghausen; match finished SG Wattenscheid 09

Market lesson

The full-time result was SG Wattenscheid 09 win 2–1, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 27, 2026 · 02:19 UTC Forecast generated
    • xG · SG Wattenscheid 09 1.26 — SV Rodinghausen 1.34
  2. Sep 02, 2026 · 17:00 UTC Kickoff
  3. FT Full-time result SG Wattenscheid 09 win · 2–1
  4. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  5. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Pending
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation pending
Market Compatibility 100/100
Betting Confidence 59/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 27, 2026 · 02:19 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-5625088

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result SG Wattenscheid 09 win · SG Wattenscheid 09 2–1 SV Rodinghausen
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Regionalliga - West
  • Fixture: SG Wattenscheid 09 vs SV Rodinghausen
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-02 17:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 33.4% · Draw 29.6% · Away 37.0%
  • xG (showing): SG Wattenscheid 09 1.26 — SV Rodinghausen 1.34 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 11, 2026 (UTC)

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Regionalliga - West Regionalliga - West — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Rot-weiss Oberhausen 12 10 1 1 31
2 Borussia Dortmund II 12 8 4 0 28
3 FC Gutersloh 12 7 2 3 23
4 Borussia M'gladbach II 11 6 2 3 20
5 Sportfreunde Siegen 12 5 4 3 19
6 Schalke 04 II 11 6 0 5 18
7 Westfalia Rhynern 12 5 2 5 17
8 Bergisch Gladbach 12 5 1 6 16
9 Bonner SC 11 3 6 2 15
10 Hilden 12 4 3 5 15
11 Köln II 10 4 2 4 14
12 FC Bocholt 12 3 4 5 13
13 Paderborn II 12 3 4 5 13
14 SG Wattenscheid 09 12 3 3 6 12
15 Bochum II 11 3 2 6 11
16 SV Rodinghausen 11 2 3 6 9
17 Wiedenbrück 11 2 2 7 8
18 Sportfreunde Lotte 12 1 3 8 6
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Rot-weiss Oberhausen 12 31 10 +21 31
2 Borussia Dortmund II 12 26 13 +13 28
3 FC Gutersloh 12 26 18 +8 23
4 Borussia M'gladbach II 11 25 13 +12 20
5 Schalke 04 II 11 25 21 +4 18
6 FC Bocholt 12 25 29 -4 13
7 Sportfreunde Siegen 12 24 18 +6 19
8 Bonner SC 11 21 20 +1 15
9 Westfalia Rhynern 12 20 23 -3 17
10 Bergisch Gladbach 12 20 27 -7 16
11 Köln II 10 19 18 +1 14
12 Paderborn II 12 19 23 -4 13
13 SG Wattenscheid 09 12 18 23 -5 12
14 Hilden 12 17 23 -6 15
15 SV Rodinghausen 11 15 20 -5 9
16 Bochum II 11 14 20 -6 11
17 Wiedenbrück 11 14 26 -12 8
18 Sportfreunde Lotte 12 8 22 -14 6
Regionalliga - West Germany. Regionalliga - West Predictions