Predictions / Football / Germany. Regionalliga - West / Borussia Dortmund II vs Schalke 04 II

Prediction Audit: Borussia Dortmund II vs Schalke 04 II Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Borussia Dortmund II Borussia Dortmund II
Sep 01, 2026 - 17:30
3 1.28
1 1.32
xG Accuracy: 57%
Schalke 04 II Schalke 04 II

The model missed the final outcome (Borussia Dortmund II win 3–1).

The model had projected Schalke 04 II at 36.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Schalke 04 II Borussia Dortmund II ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 3-1 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Borussia Dortmund II higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Borussia Dortmund II -19.1 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Borussia Dortmund II 34.2% 53.3% -19.1 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.6% 20.7% +8.9 pp Model Higher
Schalke 04 II 36.1% 26.0% +10.1 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates Borussia Dortmund II's win probability at 53.3%, compared with the model's estimate of 34.2%, a difference of 19.1 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Borussia Dortmund II win 3–1.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Borussia Dortmund II than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned Schalke 04 II; match finished Borussia Dortmund II

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Schalke 04 II by 19.1 percentage points (55.2% vs model 36.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 01, 2026 · 17:29 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Borussia Dortmund II 34.2% · Draw 29.7% · Schalke 04 II 36.1%
    • xG · Borussia Dortmund II 1.28 — Schalke 04 II 1.32
  2. Sep 01, 2026 · 17:00 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Borussia Dortmund II 1.83 · Draw 4.15 · Schalke 04 II 3.30
    • Implied 1X2 · Borussia Dortmund II 50.1% · Draw 22.1% · Schalke 04 II 27.8%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 01, 2026 · 17:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Borussia Dortmund II 1.74 · Draw 4.47 · Schalke 04 II 3.57
    • Implied 1X2 · Borussia Dortmund II 53.3% · Draw 20.7% · Schalke 04 II 26.0%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 01, 2026 · 17:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Borussia Dortmund II win · 3–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 53/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (19 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 1/100
Monitoring Confidence 18/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 26, 2026 · 02:21 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-5504344

Closing Odds 1.74
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Borussia Dortmund II win · Borussia Dortmund II 3–1 Schalke 04 II
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Regionalliga - West
  • Fixture: Borussia Dortmund II vs Schalke 04 II
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-01 17:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 34.2% · Draw 29.7% · Away 36.1%
  • xG (showing): Borussia Dortmund II 1.28 — Schalke 04 II 1.32 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None (actionable) — best tracked EV is about +1.9%, still below the +2.0% minimum for a headline / default stake (no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

Related Predictions

See Upcoming Regionalliga - West Matches Track Borussia Dortmund II Next Match Prediction Track Schalke 04 II Next Match Prediction View Today's Football Predictions

Get Premium Predictions for Borussia Dortmund II & Schalke 04 II!

Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.

Subscribe Now
Back to Predictions
Regionalliga - West Regionalliga - West — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Rot-weiss Oberhausen 10 8 1 1 25
2 Borussia Dortmund II 10 6 4 0 22
3 Borussia M'gladbach II 10 6 2 2 20
4 FC Gutersloh 10 6 2 2 20
5 Westfalia Rhynern 10 5 2 3 17
6 Bergisch Gladbach 10 5 1 4 16
7 Schalke 04 II 10 5 0 5 15
8 Köln II 10 4 2 4 14
9 Paderborn II 10 3 4 3 13
10 Sportfreunde Siegen 9 3 4 2 13
11 FC Bocholt 10 3 4 3 13
12 Bonner SC 10 2 6 2 12
13 SG Wattenscheid 09 10 2 3 5 9
14 Hilden 10 2 3 5 9
15 Bochum II 10 2 2 6 8
16 Wiedenbrück 9 2 2 5 8
17 SV Rodinghausen 10 1 3 6 6
18 Sportfreunde Lotte 10 0 3 7 3
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Rot-weiss Oberhausen 10 24 9 +15 25
2 Borussia M'gladbach II 10 23 10 +13 20
3 FC Gutersloh 10 22 10 +12 20
4 FC Bocholt 10 21 22 -1 13
5 Borussia Dortmund II 10 20 10 +10 22
6 Schalke 04 II 10 20 20 0 15
7 Köln II 10 19 18 +1 14
8 Paderborn II 10 19 18 +1 13
9 Bonner SC 10 19 19 0 12
10 Westfalia Rhynern 10 19 20 -1 17
11 Bergisch Gladbach 10 17 18 -1 16
12 Sportfreunde Siegen 9 15 14 +1 13
13 SG Wattenscheid 09 10 13 19 -6 9
14 SV Rodinghausen 10 13 19 -6 6
15 Wiedenbrück 9 12 20 -8 8
16 Hilden 10 12 21 -9 9
17 Bochum II 10 11 18 -7 8
18 Sportfreunde Lotte 10 6 20 -14 3
Regionalliga - West Germany. Regionalliga - West Predictions