The model missed the final outcome (Köln II win 1–2).
The model had projected Rot-weiss Oberhausen at 39.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Prediction grade
F
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Rot-weiss Oberhausen Köln II ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-2 ✔ Correct
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Exact score 1–2 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
- 1X2: model leaned Rot-weiss Oberhausen; match finished Köln II
Market lesson
The full-time result was Köln II win 1–2, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.
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Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Aug 16, 2026 · 01:30 UTC Forecast generated
- xG · Rot-weiss Oberhausen 1.39 — Köln II 1.21
-
Aug 22, 2026 · 12:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Köln II win · 1–2
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Historical verdict:
Observe
Historical Decision
No Primary Bet
Outcome
Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability
57/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Pending
Evidence
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation pending
Market Compatibility
100/100
Betting Confidence
59/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Köln II win · Rot-weiss Oberhausen 1–2 Köln II
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Regionalliga - West — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rot-weiss Oberhausen | 12 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 31 |
| 2 | Borussia Dortmund II | 12 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 28 |
| 3 | FC Gutersloh | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 23 |
| 4 | Borussia M'gladbach II | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 20 |
| 5 | Sportfreunde Siegen | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 19 |
| 6 | Schalke 04 II | 11 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 18 |
| 7 | Westfalia Rhynern | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 17 |
| 8 | Bergisch Gladbach | 12 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 16 |
| 9 | Bonner SC | 11 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 15 |
| 10 | Hilden | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 15 |
| 11 | Köln II | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 14 |
| 12 | FC Bocholt | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 13 |
| 13 | Paderborn II | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 13 |
| 14 | SG Wattenscheid 09 | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 12 |
| 15 | Bochum II | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 11 |
| 16 | SV Rodinghausen | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 9 |
| 17 | Wiedenbrück | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 8 |
| 18 | Sportfreunde Lotte | 12 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 6 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rot-weiss Oberhausen | 12 | 31 | 10 | +21 | 31 |
| 2 | Borussia Dortmund II | 12 | 26 | 13 | +13 | 28 |
| 3 | FC Gutersloh | 12 | 26 | 18 | +8 | 23 |
| 4 | Borussia M'gladbach II | 11 | 25 | 13 | +12 | 20 |
| 5 | Schalke 04 II | 11 | 25 | 21 | +4 | 18 |
| 6 | FC Bocholt | 12 | 25 | 29 | -4 | 13 |
| 7 | Sportfreunde Siegen | 12 | 24 | 18 | +6 | 19 |
| 8 | Bonner SC | 11 | 21 | 20 | +1 | 15 |
| 9 | Westfalia Rhynern | 12 | 20 | 23 | -3 | 17 |
| 10 | Bergisch Gladbach | 12 | 20 | 27 | -7 | 16 |
| 11 | Köln II | 10 | 19 | 18 | +1 | 14 |
| 12 | Paderborn II | 12 | 19 | 23 | -4 | 13 |
| 13 | SG Wattenscheid 09 | 12 | 18 | 23 | -5 | 12 |
| 14 | Hilden | 12 | 17 | 23 | -6 | 15 |
| 15 | SV Rodinghausen | 11 | 15 | 20 | -5 | 9 |
| 16 | Bochum II | 11 | 14 | 20 | -6 | 11 |
| 17 | Wiedenbrück | 11 | 14 | 26 | -12 | 8 |
| 18 | Sportfreunde Lotte | 12 | 8 | 22 | -14 | 6 |
