Prediction Audit: Schalke 04 II vs Sportfreunde Siegen Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Schalke 04 II

Aug 14, 2026 - 17:30

2 1.32

0 1.28

xG Accuracy: 58%

Sportfreunde Siegen

AI correctly predicted the Schalke 04 II win.

The match finished 2–0, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Schalke 04 II Schalke 04 II ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-0 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Outcome	Model	Closing Market	Difference	Signal
Schalke 04 II	36.1%	32.6%	+3.5 pp	Aligned
Draw	29.6%	24.9%	+4.8 pp	Aligned
Sportfreunde Siegen	34.2%	42.6%	-8.3 pp	Market Higher

The closing market estimates Sportfreunde Siegen's win probability at 42.6%, compared with the model's estimate of 34.2%, a difference of 8.3 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Schalke 04 II win 2–0).

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on Sportfreunde Siegen. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Schalke 04 II higher (44.4% vs model 36.1%, 8.3 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Schalke 04 II win 2–0).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

Aug 14, 2026 · 17:29 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Schalke 04 II 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Sportfreunde Siegen 34.2%
- xG · Schalke 04 II 1.32 — Sportfreunde Siegen 1.28
Aug 14, 2026 · 17:01 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Schalke 04 II 2.81 · Draw 3.68 · Sportfreunde Siegen 2.15
- Implied 1X2 · Schalke 04 II 32.6% · Draw 24.9% · Sportfreunde Siegen 42.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Aug 14, 2026 · 17:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Schalke 04 II 2.81 · Draw 3.68 · Sportfreunde Siegen 2.15
- Implied 1X2 · Schalke 04 II 32.6% · Draw 24.9% · Sportfreunde Siegen 42.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Aug 14, 2026 · 17:30 UTC Kickoff
FT Full-time result Schalke 04 II win · 2–0
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor

Historical Decision Monitor

Outcome Validated

Pre-match metrics (historical context)

Prediction Reliability 75/100 · High

Validation: Pass

Evidence ★★★★★

No strong statistical edge
Direction agrees with model lean
Validation passed

Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 20/100

Monitoring Confidence 33/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 08, 2026 · 02:00 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3233482

Closing Odds 2.15

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Schalke 04 II win · Schalke 04 II 2–0 Sportfreunde Siegen

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?: This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?: xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?: Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?: Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: Regionalliga - West
Fixture: Schalke 04 II vs Sportfreunde Siegen
Kickoff: 2026-08-14 17:30:00
1X2 (model): Home 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.2%
xG (showing): Schalke 04 II 1.32 — Sportfreunde Siegen 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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Regionalliga - West — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Rot-weiss Oberhausen	10	8	1	1	25
2	Borussia Dortmund II	10	6	4	0	22
3	Borussia M'gladbach II	10	6	2	2	20
4	FC Gutersloh	10	6	2	2	20
5	Westfalia Rhynern	10	5	2	3	17
6	Bergisch Gladbach	10	5	1	4	16
7	Schalke 04 II	10	5	0	5	15
8	Köln II	10	4	2	4	14
9	Paderborn II	10	3	4	3	13
10	Sportfreunde Siegen	9	3	4	2	13
11	FC Bocholt	10	3	4	3	13
12	Bonner SC	10	2	6	2	12
13	SG Wattenscheid 09	10	2	3	5	9
14	Hilden	10	2	3	5	9
15	Bochum II	10	2	2	6	8
16	Wiedenbrück	9	2	2	5	8
17	SV Rodinghausen	10	1	3	6	6
18	Sportfreunde Lotte	10	0	3	7	3

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Rot-weiss Oberhausen	10	24	9	+15	25
2	Borussia M'gladbach II	10	23	10	+13	20
3	FC Gutersloh	10	22	10	+12	20
4	FC Bocholt	10	21	22	-1	13
5	Borussia Dortmund II	10	20	10	+10	22
6	Schalke 04 II	10	20	20	0	15
7	Köln II	10	19	18	+1	14
8	Paderborn II	10	19	18	+1	13
9	Bonner SC	10	19	19	0	12
10	Westfalia Rhynern	10	19	20	-1	17
11	Bergisch Gladbach	10	17	18	-1	16
12	Sportfreunde Siegen	9	15	14	+1	13
13	SG Wattenscheid 09	10	13	19	-6	9
14	SV Rodinghausen	10	13	19	-6	6
15	Wiedenbrück	9	12	20	-8	8
16	Hilden	10	12	21	-9	9
17	Bochum II	10	11	18	-7	8
18	Sportfreunde Lotte	10	6	20	-14	3