Predictions / Football / Germany. Regionalliga - West / SV Rodinghausen vs Bonner SC

Prediction Audit: SV Rodinghausen vs Bonner SC Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

SV Rodinghausen SV Rodinghausen
Aug 08, 2026 - 12:00
2 1.27
1 1.33
xG Accuracy: 75%
Bonner SC Bonner SC

The model missed the final outcome (SV Rodinghausen win 2–1).

The model had projected Bonner SC at 36.6%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Bonner SC SV Rodinghausen ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices SV Rodinghausen higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: SV Rodinghausen -13.1 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
SV Rodinghausen 33.8% 46.8% -13.1 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.6% 25.3% +4.4 pp Aligned
Bonner SC 36.6% 27.9% +8.7 pp Model Higher

The closing market estimates SV Rodinghausen's win probability at 46.8%, compared with the model's estimate of 33.8%, a difference of 13.1 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was SV Rodinghausen win 2–1.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about SV Rodinghausen than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Exact score 2–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned Bonner SC; match finished SV Rodinghausen

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Bonner SC by 13.1 percentage points (49.7% vs model 36.6%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 08, 2026 · 12:05 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · SV Rodinghausen 33.8% · Draw 29.6% · Bonner SC 36.6%
    • xG · SV Rodinghausen 1.27 — Bonner SC 1.33
  2. Aug 08, 2026 · 11:37 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · SV Rodinghausen 2.15 · Draw 3.49 · Bonner SC 2.94
    • Implied 1X2 · SV Rodinghausen 42.6% · Draw 26.2% · Bonner SC 31.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 08, 2026 · 12:05 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · SV Rodinghausen 1.98 · Draw 3.67 · Bonner SC 3.32
    • Implied 1X2 · SV Rodinghausen 46.8% · Draw 25.3% · Bonner SC 27.9%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 08, 2026 · 12:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result SV Rodinghausen win · 2–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 56/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (13 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 11/100
Monitoring Confidence 19/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 02, 2026 · 01:30 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2814489

Closing Odds 1.98
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result SV Rodinghausen win · SV Rodinghausen 2–1 Bonner SC
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Regionalliga - West
  • Fixture: SV Rodinghausen vs Bonner SC
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-08 12:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 33.8% · Draw 29.6% · Away 36.6%
  • xG (showing): SV Rodinghausen 1.27 — Bonner SC 1.33 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None (actionable) — best tracked EV is about +0.2%, still below the +2.0% minimum for a headline / default stake (no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Regionalliga - West Regionalliga - West — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Rot-weiss Oberhausen 10 8 1 1 25
2 Borussia Dortmund II 10 6 4 0 22
3 Borussia M'gladbach II 10 6 2 2 20
4 FC Gutersloh 10 6 2 2 20
5 Westfalia Rhynern 10 5 2 3 17
6 Bergisch Gladbach 10 5 1 4 16
7 Schalke 04 II 10 5 0 5 15
8 Köln II 10 4 2 4 14
9 Paderborn II 10 3 4 3 13
10 Sportfreunde Siegen 9 3 4 2 13
11 FC Bocholt 10 3 4 3 13
12 Bonner SC 10 2 6 2 12
13 SG Wattenscheid 09 10 2 3 5 9
14 Hilden 10 2 3 5 9
15 Bochum II 10 2 2 6 8
16 Wiedenbrück 9 2 2 5 8
17 SV Rodinghausen 10 1 3 6 6
18 Sportfreunde Lotte 10 0 3 7 3
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Rot-weiss Oberhausen 10 24 9 +15 25
2 Borussia M'gladbach II 10 23 10 +13 20
3 FC Gutersloh 10 22 10 +12 20
4 FC Bocholt 10 21 22 -1 13
5 Borussia Dortmund II 10 20 10 +10 22
6 Schalke 04 II 10 20 20 0 15
7 Köln II 10 19 18 +1 14
8 Paderborn II 10 19 18 +1 13
9 Bonner SC 10 19 19 0 12
10 Westfalia Rhynern 10 19 20 -1 17
11 Bergisch Gladbach 10 17 18 -1 16
12 Sportfreunde Siegen 9 15 14 +1 13
13 SG Wattenscheid 09 10 13 19 -6 9
14 SV Rodinghausen 10 13 19 -6 6
15 Wiedenbrück 9 12 20 -8 8
16 Hilden 10 12 21 -9 9
17 Bochum II 10 11 18 -7 8
18 Sportfreunde Lotte 10 6 20 -14 3
Regionalliga - West Germany. Regionalliga - West Predictions