Predictions / Football / Germany. Regionalliga - West / Bonner SC vs Rot-weiss Oberhausen

Prediction Audit: Bonner SC vs Rot-weiss Oberhausen Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Bonner SC Bonner SC
Jul 31, 2026 - 17:30
1 1.28
2 1.32
xG Accuracy: 77%
Rot-weiss Oberhausen Rot-weiss Oberhausen

AI correctly predicted the Rot-weiss Oberhausen win.

The match finished 1–2, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Rot-weiss Oberhausen Rot-weiss Oberhausen ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-2 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Rot-weiss Oberhausen higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Rot-weiss Oberhausen -15.1 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Bonner SC 34.2% 23.6% +10.7 pp Model Edge
Draw 29.6% 25.2% +4.5 pp Aligned
Rot-weiss Oberhausen 36.1% 51.2% -15.1 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates Rot-weiss Oberhausen's win probability at 51.2%, compared with the model's estimate of 36.1%, a difference of 15.1 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Rot-weiss Oberhausen win 1–2).

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Rot-weiss Oberhausen than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Exact score 1–2 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Rot-weiss Oberhausen higher (51.2% vs model 36.1%, 15.1 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Rot-weiss Oberhausen win 1–2).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jul 31, 2026 · 17:30 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Bonner SC 34.2% · Draw 29.7% · Rot-weiss Oberhausen 36.1%
    • xG · Bonner SC 1.28 — Rot-weiss Oberhausen 1.32
  2. Jul 31, 2026 · 17:10 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Bonner SC 3.89 · Draw 3.64 · Rot-weiss Oberhausen 1.79
    • Implied 1X2 · Bonner SC 23.6% · Draw 25.2% · Rot-weiss Oberhausen 51.2%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Jul 31, 2026 · 17:30 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Bonner SC 3.89 · Draw 3.64 · Rot-weiss Oberhausen 1.79
    • Implied 1X2 · Bonner SC 23.6% · Draw 25.2% · Rot-weiss Oberhausen 51.2%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Jul 31, 2026 · 17:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Rot-weiss Oberhausen win · 1–2
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 55/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (15 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 24/100
Betting Confidence 44/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 25, 2026 · 04:11 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1675791

Closing Odds 1.79
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Rot-weiss Oberhausen win · Bonner SC 1–2 Rot-weiss Oberhausen
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Regionalliga - West
  • Fixture: Bonner SC vs Rot-weiss Oberhausen
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-31 17:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 34.2% · Draw 29.7% · Away 36.1%
  • xG (showing): Bonner SC 1.28 — Rot-weiss Oberhausen 1.32 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Regionalliga - West Regionalliga - West — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Rot-weiss Oberhausen 10 8 1 1 25
2 Borussia Dortmund II 10 6 4 0 22
3 Borussia M'gladbach II 10 6 2 2 20
4 FC Gutersloh 10 6 2 2 20
5 Westfalia Rhynern 10 5 2 3 17
6 Bergisch Gladbach 10 5 1 4 16
7 Schalke 04 II 10 5 0 5 15
8 Köln II 10 4 2 4 14
9 Paderborn II 10 3 4 3 13
10 Sportfreunde Siegen 9 3 4 2 13
11 FC Bocholt 10 3 4 3 13
12 Bonner SC 10 2 6 2 12
13 SG Wattenscheid 09 10 2 3 5 9
14 Hilden 10 2 3 5 9
15 Bochum II 10 2 2 6 8
16 Wiedenbrück 9 2 2 5 8
17 SV Rodinghausen 10 1 3 6 6
18 Sportfreunde Lotte 10 0 3 7 3
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Rot-weiss Oberhausen 10 24 9 +15 25
2 Borussia M'gladbach II 10 23 10 +13 20
3 FC Gutersloh 10 22 10 +12 20
4 FC Bocholt 10 21 22 -1 13
5 Borussia Dortmund II 10 20 10 +10 22
6 Schalke 04 II 10 20 20 0 15
7 Köln II 10 19 18 +1 14
8 Paderborn II 10 19 18 +1 13
9 Bonner SC 10 19 19 0 12
10 Westfalia Rhynern 10 19 20 -1 17
11 Bergisch Gladbach 10 17 18 -1 16
12 Sportfreunde Siegen 9 15 14 +1 13
13 SG Wattenscheid 09 10 13 19 -6 9
14 SV Rodinghausen 10 13 19 -6 6
15 Wiedenbrück 9 12 20 -8 8
16 Hilden 10 12 21 -9 9
17 Bochum II 10 11 18 -7 8
18 Sportfreunde Lotte 10 6 20 -14 3
Regionalliga - West Germany. Regionalliga - West Predictions