Predictions / Football / Germany. Regionalliga - SudWest / Freiburg II vs SV Sandhausen

Prediction Audit: Freiburg II vs SV Sandhausen Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Freiburg II Freiburg II
Sep 11, 2026 - 17:00
1 1.33
2 1.27
xG Accuracy: 75%
SV Sandhausen SV Sandhausen

The model missed the final outcome (SV Sandhausen win 1–2).

The model had projected Freiburg II at 36.6%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Freiburg II SV Sandhausen ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-2 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Broadly Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned.

Largest probability gap: Draw +4.6 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Freiburg II 36.6% 37.6% -1.1 pp Aligned
Draw 29.6% 25.0% +4.6 pp Aligned
SV Sandhausen 33.8% 37.4% -3.6 pp Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was SV Sandhausen win 1–2.

Market Assessment

The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.

  • Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
  • Exact score 1–2 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)

Market lesson

The full-time result was SV Sandhausen win 1–2, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 11, 2026 · 17:01 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Freiburg II 36.6% · Draw 29.6% · SV Sandhausen 33.8%
    • xG · Freiburg II 1.33 — SV Sandhausen 1.27
  2. Sep 11, 2026 · 16:32 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Freiburg II 2.43 · Draw 3.66 · SV Sandhausen 2.45
    • Implied 1X2 · Freiburg II 37.6% · Draw 25.0% · SV Sandhausen 37.4%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 11, 2026 · 17:01 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Freiburg II 2.43 · Draw 3.66 · SV Sandhausen 2.45
    • Implied 1X2 · Freiburg II 37.6% · Draw 25.0% · SV Sandhausen 37.4%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 11, 2026 · 17:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result SV Sandhausen win · 1–2
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 77/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Market Compatibility 76/100
Betting Confidence 80/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 05, 2026 · 01:49 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7035145

Closing Odds 3.66
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result SV Sandhausen win · Freiburg II 1–2 SV Sandhausen
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Regionalliga - SudWest
  • Fixture: Freiburg II vs SV Sandhausen
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-11 17:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 36.6% · Draw 29.6% · Away 33.8%
  • xG (showing): Freiburg II 1.33 — SV Sandhausen 1.27 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 33.2% · Probability edge: +18.6 pts · Est. EV: +44.0%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Regionalliga - SudWest Regionalliga - SudWest — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Kickers Offenbach 8 6 1 1 19
2 SGV Freiberg 8 5 3 0 18
3 Stuttgarter Kickers 8 5 1 2 16
4 FC 08 Homburg 8 4 2 2 14
5 Freiburg II 8 3 4 1 13
6 Eintracht Trier 8 4 1 3 13
7 FSV Frankfurt 8 3 3 2 12
8 VfR Aalen 8 3 3 2 12
9 SV Sandhausen 9 3 3 3 12
10 VfR Mannheim 8 2 5 1 11
11 Hessen Kassel 8 3 1 4 10
12 Eintracht Frankfurt II 8 3 1 4 10
13 TSV Steinbach 8 2 3 3 9
14 Kaiserslautern II 8 2 2 4 8
15 FC Astoria Walldorf 9 1 3 5 6
16 FSV Mainz 05 II 8 2 0 6 6
17 Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. 8 1 2 5 5
18 SSV Ulm 1846 8 0 4 4 4
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 SGV Freiberg 8 22 7 +15 18
2 Kickers Offenbach 8 19 8 +11 19
3 Freiburg II 8 16 11 +5 13
4 Stuttgarter Kickers 8 15 11 +4 16
5 SV Sandhausen 9 15 19 -4 12
6 Hessen Kassel 8 14 15 -1 10
7 FSV Frankfurt 8 13 9 +4 12
8 FC 08 Homburg 8 12 11 +1 14
9 TSV Steinbach 8 12 13 -1 9
10 Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. 8 12 16 -4 5
11 VfR Aalen 8 11 9 +2 12
12 Eintracht Frankfurt II 8 11 12 -1 10
13 FC Astoria Walldorf 9 11 17 -6 6
14 SSV Ulm 1846 8 11 18 -7 4
15 Eintracht Trier 8 9 7 +2 13
16 VfR Mannheim 8 9 8 +1 11
17 FSV Mainz 05 II 8 8 18 -10 6
18 Kaiserslautern II 8 6 17 -11 8
Regionalliga - SudWest Germany. Regionalliga - SudWest Predictions