Predictions / Football / Germany. Regionalliga - SudWest / Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. vs FSV Frankfurt

Prediction Audit: Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. vs FSV Frankfurt Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn.
Aug 28, 2026 - 17:00
2 1.30
2 1.30
xG Accuracy: 68%
FSV Frankfurt FSV Frankfurt

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 2–2).

The model had projected Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. at 35.2%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-2 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The closing market prices FSV Frankfurt higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: FSV Frankfurt -5.4 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. 35.2% 33.7% +1.5 pp Aligned
Draw 29.6% 25.8% +3.9 pp Aligned
FSV Frankfurt 35.2% 40.5% -5.4 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates FSV Frankfurt's win probability at 40.5%, compared with the model's estimate of 35.2%, a difference of 5.4 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.

After full time, the result was Draw 2–2.

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on FSV Frankfurt. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn.; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. by 5.4 percentage points (40.6% vs model 35.2%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 28, 2026 · 16:58 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. 35.2% · Draw 29.6% · FSV Frankfurt 35.2%
    • xG · Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. 1.30 — FSV Frankfurt 1.30
  2. Aug 28, 2026 · 16:34 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. 2.72 · Draw 3.55 · FSV Frankfurt 2.26
    • Implied 1X2 · Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. 33.7% · Draw 25.8% · FSV Frankfurt 40.5%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 28, 2026 · 16:58 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
    • 1X2 odds · Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. 2.72 · Draw 3.55 · FSV Frankfurt 2.26
    • Implied 1X2 · Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. 33.7% · Draw 25.8% · FSV Frankfurt 40.5%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 28, 2026 · 17:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Draw · 2–2
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 76/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Market Compatibility 25/100
Monitoring Confidence 34/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 22, 2026 · 03:13 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-4936936

Closing Odds 2.26
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. 2–2 FSV Frankfurt
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Regionalliga - SudWest
  • Fixture: Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. vs FSV Frankfurt
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-28 17:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 35.2% · Draw 29.6% · Away 35.2%
  • xG (showing): Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. 1.3 — FSV Frankfurt 1.3 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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Regionalliga - SudWest Regionalliga - SudWest — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Kickers Offenbach 8 6 1 1 19
2 SGV Freiberg 8 5 3 0 18
3 Stuttgarter Kickers 8 5 1 2 16
4 FC 08 Homburg 8 4 2 2 14
5 Freiburg II 8 3 4 1 13
6 Eintracht Trier 8 4 1 3 13
7 FSV Frankfurt 8 3 3 2 12
8 VfR Aalen 8 3 3 2 12
9 SV Sandhausen 9 3 3 3 12
10 VfR Mannheim 8 2 5 1 11
11 Hessen Kassel 8 3 1 4 10
12 Eintracht Frankfurt II 8 3 1 4 10
13 TSV Steinbach 8 2 3 3 9
14 Kaiserslautern II 8 2 2 4 8
15 FC Astoria Walldorf 9 1 3 5 6
16 FSV Mainz 05 II 8 2 0 6 6
17 Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. 8 1 2 5 5
18 SSV Ulm 1846 8 0 4 4 4
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 SGV Freiberg 8 22 7 +15 18
2 Kickers Offenbach 8 19 8 +11 19
3 Freiburg II 8 16 11 +5 13
4 Stuttgarter Kickers 8 15 11 +4 16
5 SV Sandhausen 9 15 19 -4 12
6 Hessen Kassel 8 14 15 -1 10
7 FSV Frankfurt 8 13 9 +4 12
8 FC 08 Homburg 8 12 11 +1 14
9 TSV Steinbach 8 12 13 -1 9
10 Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. 8 12 16 -4 5
11 VfR Aalen 8 11 9 +2 12
12 Eintracht Frankfurt II 8 11 12 -1 10
13 FC Astoria Walldorf 9 11 17 -6 6
14 SSV Ulm 1846 8 11 18 -7 4
15 Eintracht Trier 8 9 7 +2 13
16 VfR Mannheim 8 9 8 +1 11
17 FSV Mainz 05 II 8 8 18 -10 6
18 Kaiserslautern II 8 6 17 -11 8
Regionalliga - SudWest Germany. Regionalliga - SudWest Predictions