Predictions / Football / Germany. Regionalliga - Nordost / Magdeburg II vs Altglienicke

Prediction Audit: Magdeburg II vs Altglienicke Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Magdeburg II Magdeburg II
Sep 25, 2026 - 17:00
0 1.30
1 1.30
xG Accuracy: 64%
Altglienicke Altglienicke

The model missed the final outcome (Altglienicke win 0–1).

The model had projected Magdeburg II at 35.2%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Magdeburg II Altglienicke ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Altglienicke higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Altglienicke -18.0 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Magdeburg II 35.2% 26.5% +8.7 pp Model Higher
Draw 29.6% 20.3% +9.4 pp Model Higher
Altglienicke 35.2% 53.2% -18.0 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates Altglienicke's win probability at 53.2%, compared with the model's estimate of 35.2%, a difference of 18.0 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Altglienicke win 0–1.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Altglienicke than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 0–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • 1X2: model leaned Magdeburg II; match finished Altglienicke

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Magdeburg II by 18.0 percentage points (53.2% vs model 35.2%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 25, 2026 · 17:00 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Magdeburg II 35.2% · Draw 29.6% · Altglienicke 35.2%
    • xG · Magdeburg II 1.30 — Altglienicke 1.30
  2. Sep 25, 2026 · 16:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Magdeburg II 3.45 · Draw 4.51 · Altglienicke 1.72
    • Implied 1X2 · Magdeburg II 26.5% · Draw 20.3% · Altglienicke 53.2%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 25, 2026 · 17:00 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Magdeburg II 3.45 · Draw 4.51 · Altglienicke 1.72
    • Implied 1X2 · Magdeburg II 26.5% · Draw 20.3% · Altglienicke 53.2%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 25, 2026 · 17:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Altglienicke win · 0–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 54/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (18 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 3/100
Monitoring Confidence 19/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 19, 2026 · 01:19 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-9570102

Closing Odds 1.72
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Altglienicke win · Magdeburg II 0–1 Altglienicke
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Regionalliga - Nordost
  • Fixture: Magdeburg II vs Altglienicke
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-25 17:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 35.2% · Draw 29.6% · Away 35.2%
  • xG (showing): Magdeburg II 1.3 — Altglienicke 1.3 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 31.4% · Probability edge: +20.4 pts · Est. EV: +53.8%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Regionalliga - Nordost Regionalliga - Nordost — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt 11 8 3 0 27
2 Chemnitzer FC 11 8 2 1 26
3 Hallescher FC 11 6 4 1 22
4 BFC Dynamo 11 6 3 2 21
5 Altglienicke 11 6 3 2 21
6 Erzgebirge Aue 10 6 3 1 21
7 FC Carl Zeiss Jena 11 6 1 4 19
8 Greifswalder FC 11 5 4 2 19
9 Lokomotive Leipzig 11 4 3 4 15
10 FSV Zwickau 10 4 2 4 14
11 Magdeburg II 11 4 1 6 13
12 BFC Preussen 11 2 4 5 10
13 SV Babelsberg 03 10 2 3 5 9
14 Hertha BSC II 10 2 2 6 8
15 BSG Chemie Leipzig 10 1 3 6 6
16 RSV Eintracht 11 1 3 7 6
17 Tasmania Berlin 11 1 2 8 5
18 Luckenwalde 10 1 0 9 3
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt 11 36 11 +25 27
2 Chemnitzer FC 11 25 5 +20 26
3 Greifswalder FC 11 23 16 +7 19
4 Lokomotive Leipzig 11 23 23 0 15
5 BFC Dynamo 11 20 12 +8 21
6 Altglienicke 11 20 14 +6 21
7 Magdeburg II 11 20 23 -3 13
8 FC Carl Zeiss Jena 11 19 10 +9 19
9 Erzgebirge Aue 10 19 14 +5 21
10 Hallescher FC 11 18 9 +9 22
11 BFC Preussen 11 14 17 -3 10
12 RSV Eintracht 11 13 29 -16 6
13 Tasmania Berlin 11 13 36 -23 5
14 FSV Zwickau 10 12 16 -4 14
15 SV Babelsberg 03 10 11 15 -4 9
16 BSG Chemie Leipzig 10 10 16 -6 6
17 Hertha BSC II 10 8 20 -12 8
18 Luckenwalde 10 7 25 -18 3