Predictions / Football / Germany. Regionalliga - Nord / Bremer SV vs Weiche Flensburg

Prediction Audit: Bremer SV vs Weiche Flensburg Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Bremer SV Bremer SV
Sep 27, 2026 - 13:00
0 1.37
3 1.23
xG Accuracy: 42%
Weiche Flensburg Weiche Flensburg

The model missed the final outcome (Weiche Flensburg win 0–3).

The model had projected Bremer SV at 38.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Bremer SV Weiche Flensburg ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-3 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Weiche Flensburg higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Weiche Flensburg -18.9 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Bremer SV 38.5% 28.1% +10.4 pp Model Edge
Draw 29.6% 21.1% +8.5 pp Model Higher
Weiche Flensburg 31.9% 50.8% -18.9 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates Weiche Flensburg's win probability at 50.8%, compared with the model's estimate of 31.9%, a difference of 18.9 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE10.

After full time, the result was Weiche Flensburg win 0–3.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Weiche Flensburg than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned Bremer SV; match finished Weiche Flensburg

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Bremer SV by 18.9 percentage points (57.4% vs model 38.5%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 27, 2026 · 12:52 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Bremer SV 38.5% · Draw 29.6% · Weiche Flensburg 31.9%
    • xG · Bremer SV 1.37 — Weiche Flensburg 1.23
  2. Sep 27, 2026 · 12:32 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Bremer SV 3.26 · Draw 4.34 · Weiche Flensburg 1.80
    • Implied 1X2 · Bremer SV 28.1% · Draw 21.1% · Weiche Flensburg 50.8%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 27, 2026 · 12:52 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE10
    • 1X2 odds · Bremer SV 3.26 · Draw 4.34 · Weiche Flensburg 1.80
    • Implied 1X2 · Bremer SV 28.1% · Draw 21.1% · Weiche Flensburg 50.8%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 27, 2026 · 13:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Weiche Flensburg win · 0–3
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 54/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (19 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 1/100
Monitoring Confidence 19/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 21, 2026 · 01:22 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10090424

Closing Odds 1.8
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Weiche Flensburg win · Bremer SV 0–3 Weiche Flensburg
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Regionalliga - Nord
  • Fixture: Bremer SV vs Weiche Flensburg
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-27 13:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 38.5% · Draw 29.6% · Away 31.9%
  • xG (showing): Bremer SV 1.37 — Weiche Flensburg 1.23 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 33.4% · Probability edge: +18.4 pts · Est. EV: +45.0%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Regionalliga - Nord Regionalliga - Nord — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Schöningen 11 7 3 1 24
2 Phönix Lübeck 10 7 2 1 23
3 Weiche Flensburg 10 7 1 2 22
4 SV Drochtersen/Assel 11 7 1 3 22
5 VfB Oldenburg 10 7 1 2 22
6 Hannover 96 II 10 5 3 2 18
7 Kickers Emden 11 5 3 3 18
8 Atlas Delmenhorst 11 4 3 4 15
9 Eintracht Norderstedt 11 3 4 4 13
10 Eimsbütteler TV 11 4 1 6 13
11 Werder Bremen II 10 3 2 5 11
12 VfB Lübeck 11 2 5 4 11
13 St. Pauli II 11 3 1 7 10
14 SSV Jeddeloh 11 3 1 7 10
15 Hamburger SV II 11 3 1 7 10
16 HSC Hannover 11 2 4 5 10
17 Bremer SV 10 2 2 6 8
18 Todesfelde 11 2 2 7 8
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 SV Drochtersen/Assel 11 33 16 +17 22
2 VfB Oldenburg 10 31 14 +17 22
3 Kickers Emden 11 31 30 +1 18
4 Weiche Flensburg 10 30 12 +18 22
5 Phönix Lübeck 10 28 6 +22 23
6 Eintracht Norderstedt 11 23 27 -4 13
7 Hannover 96 II 10 21 14 +7 18
8 Eimsbütteler TV 11 21 33 -12 13
9 St. Pauli II 11 20 21 -1 10
10 Schöningen 11 19 15 +4 24
11 Todesfelde 11 19 37 -18 8
12 Atlas Delmenhorst 11 17 20 -3 15
13 Werder Bremen II 10 16 18 -2 11
14 SSV Jeddeloh 11 16 25 -9 10
15 Hamburger SV II 11 15 25 -10 10
16 HSC Hannover 11 15 26 -11 10
17 VfB Lübeck 11 14 21 -7 11
18 Bremer SV 10 9 18 -9 8
Regionalliga - Nord Germany. Regionalliga - Nord Predictions