Prediction Audit: Schöningen vs VfB Oldenburg Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Schöningen

Sep 06, 2026 - 12:00

1 1.15

0 1.45

xG Accuracy: 64%

VfB Oldenburg

The model missed the final outcome (Schöningen win 1–0).

The model had projected VfB Oldenburg at 42.4%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 VfB Oldenburg Schöningen ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 1-0, 0-2 1-0 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Outcome	Model	Closing Market	Difference	Signal
Schöningen	28.4%	23.5%	+4.9 pp	Aligned
Draw	29.3%	22.4%	+6.8 pp	Model Higher
VfB Oldenburg	42.4%	54.1%	-11.7 pp	Market Higher

The closing market estimates VfB Oldenburg's win probability at 54.1%, compared with the model's estimate of 42.4%, a difference of 11.7 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Schöningen win 1–0.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about VfB Oldenburg than the current fair estimate.

Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
Exact score 1–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
1X2: model leaned VfB Oldenburg; match finished Schöningen

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on VfB Oldenburg by 11.7 percentage points (54.1% vs model 42.4%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

Sep 06, 2026 · 12:00 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Schöningen 28.4% · Draw 29.2% · VfB Oldenburg 42.4%
- xG · Schöningen 1.15 — VfB Oldenburg 1.45
Sep 06, 2026 · 11:31 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Schöningen 3.89 · Draw 4.07 · VfB Oldenburg 1.69
- Implied 1X2 · Schöningen 23.5% · Draw 22.4% · VfB Oldenburg 54.1%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Sep 06, 2026 · 12:00 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Schöningen 3.89 · Draw 4.07 · VfB Oldenburg 1.69
- Implied 1X2 · Schöningen 23.5% · Draw 22.4% · VfB Oldenburg 54.1%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Sep 06, 2026 · 12:00 UTC Kickoff
FT Full-time result Schöningen win · 1–0
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor

Historical Decision Monitor

Outcome Missed

Pre-match metrics (historical context)

Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate

Validation: Warning
Large market gap (12 pp)

Evidence ★★★★★

No strong statistical edge
Market has already priced much of the edge
Validation warning

Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 41/100

Betting Confidence 45/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 31, 2026 · 01:31 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-6327742

Closing Odds 1.69

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Schöningen win · Schöningen 1–0 VfB Oldenburg

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?: This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?: xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?: Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?: Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: Regionalliga - Nord
Fixture: Schöningen vs VfB Oldenburg
Kickoff: 2026-09-06 12:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 28.4% · Draw 29.2% · Away 42.4%
xG (showing): Schöningen 1.15 — VfB Oldenburg 1.45 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 53.9% · No 46.1%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 53.9% · No 46.1%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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Regionalliga - Nord — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Schöningen	11	7	3	1	24
2	Phönix Lübeck	10	7	2	1	23
3	Weiche Flensburg	10	7	1	2	22
4	SV Drochtersen/Assel	11	7	1	3	22
5	VfB Oldenburg	10	7	1	2	22
6	Hannover 96 II	10	5	3	2	18
7	Kickers Emden	11	5	3	3	18
8	Atlas Delmenhorst	11	4	3	4	15
9	Eintracht Norderstedt	11	3	4	4	13
10	Eimsbütteler TV	11	4	1	6	13
11	Werder Bremen II	10	3	2	5	11
12	VfB Lübeck	11	2	5	4	11
13	St. Pauli II	11	3	1	7	10
14	SSV Jeddeloh	11	3	1	7	10
15	Hamburger SV II	11	3	1	7	10
16	HSC Hannover	11	2	4	5	10
17	Bremer SV	10	2	2	6	8
18	Todesfelde	11	2	2	7	8

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	SV Drochtersen/Assel	11	33	16	+17	22
2	VfB Oldenburg	10	31	14	+17	22
3	Kickers Emden	11	31	30	+1	18
4	Weiche Flensburg	10	30	12	+18	22
5	Phönix Lübeck	10	28	6	+22	23
6	Eintracht Norderstedt	11	23	27	-4	13
7	Hannover 96 II	10	21	14	+7	18
8	Eimsbütteler TV	11	21	33	-12	13
9	St. Pauli II	11	20	21	-1	10
10	Schöningen	11	19	15	+4	24
11	Todesfelde	11	19	37	-18	8
12	Atlas Delmenhorst	11	17	20	-3	15
13	Werder Bremen II	10	16	18	-2	11
14	SSV Jeddeloh	11	16	25	-9	10
15	Hamburger SV II	11	15	25	-10	10
16	HSC Hannover	11	15	26	-11	10
17	VfB Lübeck	11	14	21	-7	11
18	Bremer SV	10	9	18	-9	8