Predictions / Football / Germany. Regionalliga - Nord / Todesfelde vs VfB Oldenburg

Prediction Audit: Todesfelde vs VfB Oldenburg Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Todesfelde Todesfelde
Aug 26, 2026 - 16:30
1 1.11
4 1.49
xG Accuracy: 49%
VfB Oldenburg VfB Oldenburg

AI correctly predicted the VfB Oldenburg win.

The match finished 1–4, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 VfB Oldenburg VfB Oldenburg ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 0-2, 1-0 1-4 ✖ Incorrect

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 5 goals materialised
  • VfB Oldenburg attacking xG significantly stronger (1.49 vs 1.11)
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (5 goals)
  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

The model's directional lean matched the full-time result (VfB Oldenburg win 1–4).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 20, 2026 · 02:37 UTC Forecast generated
    • xG · Todesfelde 1.11 — VfB Oldenburg 1.49
  2. Aug 26, 2026 · 16:30 UTC Kickoff
  3. FT Full-time result VfB Oldenburg win · 1–4
  4. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  5. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Pending
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation pending
Market Compatibility 100/100
Betting Confidence 59/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 20, 2026 · 02:37 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-4677908

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result VfB Oldenburg win · Todesfelde 1–4 VfB Oldenburg
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Regionalliga - Nord
  • Fixture: Todesfelde vs VfB Oldenburg
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-26 16:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 26.7% · Draw 29.0% · Away 44.3%
  • xG (showing): Todesfelde 1.11 — VfB Oldenburg 1.49 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 53.5% · No 46.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 53.5% · No 46.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.3%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 14, 2026 (UTC)

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Regionalliga - Nord Regionalliga - Nord — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Weiche Flensburg 13 10 1 2 31
2 SV Drochtersen/Assel 13 9 1 3 28
3 Hannover 96 II 13 8 3 2 27
4 Phönix Lübeck 12 8 2 2 26
5 VfB Oldenburg 12 8 1 3 25
6 Schöningen 13 7 3 3 24
7 Kickers Emden 13 5 3 5 18
8 Atlas Delmenhorst 12 4 4 4 16
9 HSC Hannover 13 4 4 5 16
10 VfB Lübeck 13 3 6 4 15
11 Eimsbütteler TV 13 4 2 7 14
12 Eintracht Norderstedt 12 3 4 5 13
13 Hamburger SV II 12 4 1 7 13
14 Werder Bremen II 12 3 3 6 12
15 Todesfelde 13 3 2 8 11
16 St. Pauli II 12 3 1 8 10
17 SSV Jeddeloh 13 3 1 9 10
18 Bremer SV 12 2 2 8 8
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 SV Drochtersen/Assel 13 43 18 +25 28
2 Weiche Flensburg 13 40 14 +26 31
3 VfB Oldenburg 12 37 17 +20 25
4 Phönix Lübeck 12 34 10 +24 26
5 Kickers Emden 13 32 36 -4 18
6 Hannover 96 II 13 28 16 +12 27
7 Eintracht Norderstedt 12 24 31 -7 13
8 St. Pauli II 12 23 25 -2 10
9 HSC Hannover 13 21 29 -8 16
10 Eimsbütteler TV 13 21 35 -14 14
11 Todesfelde 13 21 42 -21 11
12 Schöningen 13 20 20 0 24
13 SSV Jeddeloh 13 19 34 -15 10
14 Hamburger SV II 12 18 26 -8 13
15 Atlas Delmenhorst 12 17 20 -3 16
16 Werder Bremen II 12 16 20 -4 12
17 VfB Lübeck 13 16 22 -6 15
18 Bremer SV 12 9 24 -15 8
Regionalliga - Nord Germany. Regionalliga - Nord Predictions