Predictions / Football / Germany. Regionalliga - Nord / SV Drochtersen/Assel vs Werder Bremen II

Prediction Audit: SV Drochtersen/Assel vs Werder Bremen II Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

SV Drochtersen/Assel SV Drochtersen/Assel
Aug 26, 2026 - 17:30
0 1.42
1 1.18
xG Accuracy: 64%
Werder Bremen II Werder Bremen II

The model missed the final outcome (Werder Bremen II win 0–1).

The model had projected SV Drochtersen/Assel at 40.9%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 SV Drochtersen/Assel Werder Bremen II ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 0-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices SV Drochtersen/Assel higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: SV Drochtersen/Assel -18.9 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
SV Drochtersen/Assel 40.9% 59.8% -18.9 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.4% 19.9% +9.5 pp Model Higher
Werder Bremen II 29.7% 20.3% +9.4 pp Model Higher

The closing market estimates SV Drochtersen/Assel's win probability at 59.8%, compared with the model's estimate of 40.9%, a difference of 18.9 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Werder Bremen II win 0–1.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about SV Drochtersen/Assel than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 0–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • 1X2: model leaned SV Drochtersen/Assel; match finished Werder Bremen II

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on SV Drochtersen/Assel by 18.9 percentage points (59.8% vs model 40.9%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 26, 2026 · 17:29 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · SV Drochtersen/Assel 41.0% · Draw 29.4% · Werder Bremen II 29.6%
    • xG · SV Drochtersen/Assel 1.42 — Werder Bremen II 1.18
  2. Aug 26, 2026 · 17:01 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · SV Drochtersen/Assel 1.53 · Draw 4.60 · Werder Bremen II 4.51
    • Implied 1X2 · SV Drochtersen/Assel 59.8% · Draw 19.9% · Werder Bremen II 20.3%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 26, 2026 · 17:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · SV Drochtersen/Assel 1.53 · Draw 4.60 · Werder Bremen II 4.51
    • Implied 1X2 · SV Drochtersen/Assel 59.8% · Draw 19.9% · Werder Bremen II 20.3%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 26, 2026 · 17:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Werder Bremen II win · 0–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 54/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (19 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 5/100
Betting Confidence 43/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 20, 2026 · 02:43 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-4678456

Closing Odds 1.53
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Werder Bremen II win · SV Drochtersen/Assel 0–1 Werder Bremen II
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Regionalliga - Nord
  • Fixture: SV Drochtersen/Assel vs Werder Bremen II
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-26 17:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.0% · Draw 29.4% · Away 29.6%
  • xG (showing): SV Drochtersen/Assel 1.42 — Werder Bremen II 1.18 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.1% · No 45.9%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.1% · No 45.9%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Regionalliga - Nord Regionalliga - Nord — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Schöningen 11 7 3 1 24
2 Phönix Lübeck 10 7 2 1 23
3 Weiche Flensburg 10 7 1 2 22
4 SV Drochtersen/Assel 11 7 1 3 22
5 VfB Oldenburg 10 7 1 2 22
6 Hannover 96 II 10 5 3 2 18
7 Kickers Emden 11 5 3 3 18
8 Atlas Delmenhorst 11 4 3 4 15
9 Eintracht Norderstedt 11 3 4 4 13
10 Eimsbütteler TV 11 4 1 6 13
11 Werder Bremen II 10 3 2 5 11
12 VfB Lübeck 11 2 5 4 11
13 St. Pauli II 11 3 1 7 10
14 SSV Jeddeloh 11 3 1 7 10
15 Hamburger SV II 11 3 1 7 10
16 HSC Hannover 11 2 4 5 10
17 Bremer SV 10 2 2 6 8
18 Todesfelde 11 2 2 7 8
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 SV Drochtersen/Assel 11 33 16 +17 22
2 VfB Oldenburg 10 31 14 +17 22
3 Kickers Emden 11 31 30 +1 18
4 Weiche Flensburg 10 30 12 +18 22
5 Phönix Lübeck 10 28 6 +22 23
6 Eintracht Norderstedt 11 23 27 -4 13
7 Hannover 96 II 10 21 14 +7 18
8 Eimsbütteler TV 11 21 33 -12 13
9 St. Pauli II 11 20 21 -1 10
10 Schöningen 11 19 15 +4 24
11 Todesfelde 11 19 37 -18 8
12 Atlas Delmenhorst 11 17 20 -3 15
13 Werder Bremen II 10 16 18 -2 11
14 SSV Jeddeloh 11 16 25 -9 10
15 Hamburger SV II 11 15 25 -10 10
16 HSC Hannover 11 15 26 -11 10
17 VfB Lübeck 11 14 21 -7 11
18 Bremer SV 10 9 18 -9 8
Regionalliga - Nord Germany. Regionalliga - Nord Predictions