Predictions / Football / Germany. Regionalliga - Nord / SV Drochtersen/Assel vs Phönix Lübeck

Prediction Audit: SV Drochtersen/Assel vs Phönix Lübeck Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

SV Drochtersen/Assel SV Drochtersen/Assel
Jul 31, 2026 - 17:30
2 1.40
1 1.20
xG Accuracy: 80%
Phönix Lübeck Phönix Lübeck

AI correctly predicted the SV Drochtersen/Assel win.

The match finished 2–1, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 SV Drochtersen/Assel SV Drochtersen/Assel ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices SV Drochtersen/Assel higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: SV Drochtersen/Assel -10.1 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
SV Drochtersen/Assel 39.9% 50.0% -10.1 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.5% 25.7% +3.8 pp Aligned
Phönix Lübeck 30.6% 24.3% +6.3 pp Model Higher

The closing market estimates SV Drochtersen/Assel's win probability at 50.0%, compared with the model's estimate of 39.9%, a difference of 10.1 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (SV Drochtersen/Assel win 2–1).

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about SV Drochtersen/Assel than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Exact score 2–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced SV Drochtersen/Assel higher (50.0% vs model 39.9%, 10.1 pp), but the model's lean was validated (SV Drochtersen/Assel win 2–1).

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jul 31, 2026 · 17:30 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · SV Drochtersen/Assel 40.0% · Draw 29.5% · Phönix Lübeck 30.6%
    • xG · SV Drochtersen/Assel 1.40 — Phönix Lübeck 1.20
  2. Jul 31, 2026 · 17:10 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · SV Drochtersen/Assel 1.83 · Draw 3.56 · Phönix Lübeck 3.77
    • Implied 1X2 · SV Drochtersen/Assel 50.0% · Draw 25.7% · Phönix Lübeck 24.3%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Jul 31, 2026 · 17:30 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · SV Drochtersen/Assel 1.83 · Draw 3.56 · Phönix Lübeck 3.77
    • Implied 1X2 · SV Drochtersen/Assel 50.0% · Draw 25.7% · Phönix Lübeck 24.3%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Jul 31, 2026 · 17:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result SV Drochtersen/Assel win · 2–1
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 58/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (10 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 49/100
Betting Confidence 46/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 25, 2026 · 04:11 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1675771

Closing Odds 1.83
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result SV Drochtersen/Assel win · SV Drochtersen/Assel 2–1 Phönix Lübeck
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Regionalliga - Nord
  • Fixture: SV Drochtersen/Assel vs Phönix Lübeck
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-31 17:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 40.0% · Draw 29.5% · Away 30.6%
  • xG (showing): SV Drochtersen/Assel 1.4 — Phönix Lübeck 1.2 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

Related Predictions

See Upcoming Regionalliga - Nord Matches Track SV Drochtersen/Assel Next Match Prediction Track Phönix Lübeck Next Match Prediction View Today's Football Predictions

Get Premium Predictions for SV Drochtersen/Assel & Phönix Lübeck!

Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.

Subscribe Now
Back to Predictions
Regionalliga - Nord Regionalliga - Nord — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Schöningen 11 7 3 1 24
2 Phönix Lübeck 10 7 2 1 23
3 Weiche Flensburg 10 7 1 2 22
4 SV Drochtersen/Assel 11 7 1 3 22
5 VfB Oldenburg 10 7 1 2 22
6 Hannover 96 II 10 5 3 2 18
7 Kickers Emden 11 5 3 3 18
8 Atlas Delmenhorst 11 4 3 4 15
9 Eintracht Norderstedt 11 3 4 4 13
10 Eimsbütteler TV 11 4 1 6 13
11 Werder Bremen II 10 3 2 5 11
12 VfB Lübeck 11 2 5 4 11
13 St. Pauli II 11 3 1 7 10
14 SSV Jeddeloh 11 3 1 7 10
15 Hamburger SV II 11 3 1 7 10
16 HSC Hannover 11 2 4 5 10
17 Bremer SV 10 2 2 6 8
18 Todesfelde 11 2 2 7 8
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 SV Drochtersen/Assel 11 33 16 +17 22
2 VfB Oldenburg 10 31 14 +17 22
3 Kickers Emden 11 31 30 +1 18
4 Weiche Flensburg 10 30 12 +18 22
5 Phönix Lübeck 10 28 6 +22 23
6 Eintracht Norderstedt 11 23 27 -4 13
7 Hannover 96 II 10 21 14 +7 18
8 Eimsbütteler TV 11 21 33 -12 13
9 St. Pauli II 11 20 21 -1 10
10 Schöningen 11 19 15 +4 24
11 Todesfelde 11 19 37 -18 8
12 Atlas Delmenhorst 11 17 20 -3 15
13 Werder Bremen II 10 16 18 -2 11
14 SSV Jeddeloh 11 16 25 -9 10
15 Hamburger SV II 11 15 25 -10 10
16 HSC Hannover 11 15 26 -11 10
17 VfB Lübeck 11 14 21 -7 11
18 Bremer SV 10 9 18 -9 8
Regionalliga - Nord Germany. Regionalliga - Nord Predictions