The model missed the final outcome (Bayreuth win 2–4).
The model had projected Eltersdorf at 40.9%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Prediction grade
F
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (6 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Eltersdorf Bayreuth ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 2-4 ✖ Incorrect
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 6 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (6 goals)
- 1X2: model leaned Eltersdorf; match finished Bayreuth
Market lesson
The full-time result was Bayreuth win 2–4, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.
Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 01:17 UTC Forecast generated
- xG · Eltersdorf 1.42 — Bayreuth 1.18
-
Sep 25, 2026 · 17:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Bayreuth win · 2–4
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Historical verdict:
Observe
Historical Decision
No Primary Bet
Outcome
Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability
57/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Pending
Evidence
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation pending
Market Compatibility
100/100
Betting Confidence
59/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Bayreuth win · Eltersdorf 2–4 Bayreuth
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Explore More Predictions Content
Get Premium Predictions for Eltersdorf & Bayreuth!
Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.
Subscribe Now
Regionalliga - Bayern — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Buchbach | 10 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 26 |
| 2 | Memmingen | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 21 |
| 3 | Illertissen | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 18 |
| 4 | SpVgg Unterhaching | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 18 |
| 5 | Eichstätt | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 18 |
| 6 | Wacker Burghausen | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 17 |
| 7 | TSV 1860 München | 10 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 17 |
| 8 | Vilzing | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 16 |
| 9 | Augsburg II | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 15 |
| 10 | Bayern München II | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 14 |
| 11 | Bayreuth | 11 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 13 |
| 12 | Eltersdorf | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 12 |
| 13 | FC Schweinfurt 05 | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 11 |
| 14 | Nürnberg II | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 10 |
| 15 | Greuther Fürth II | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 10 |
| 16 | Ansbach | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 10 |
| 17 | Schwaben Augsburg | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 9 |
| 18 | Aubstadt | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 8 |
| 19 | Landsberg | 10 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 7 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wacker Burghausen | 11 | 27 | 19 | +8 | 17 |
| 2 | Buchbach | 10 | 23 | 7 | +16 | 26 |
| 3 | TSV 1860 München | 10 | 20 | 13 | +7 | 17 |
| 4 | Illertissen | 11 | 20 | 15 | +5 | 18 |
| 5 | Nürnberg II | 10 | 18 | 17 | +1 | 10 |
| 6 | Augsburg II | 11 | 18 | 23 | -5 | 15 |
| 7 | Vilzing | 10 | 17 | 15 | +2 | 16 |
| 8 | Bayreuth | 11 | 17 | 18 | -1 | 13 |
| 9 | Eltersdorf | 10 | 15 | 16 | -1 | 12 |
| 10 | FC Schweinfurt 05 | 10 | 15 | 23 | -8 | 11 |
| 11 | Eichstätt | 11 | 14 | 15 | -1 | 18 |
| 12 | Greuther Fürth II | 10 | 14 | 17 | -3 | 10 |
| 13 | Aubstadt | 10 | 14 | 19 | -5 | 8 |
| 14 | Memmingen | 11 | 13 | 7 | +6 | 21 |
| 15 | Bayern München II | 10 | 13 | 11 | +2 | 14 |
| 16 | SpVgg Unterhaching | 9 | 12 | 7 | +5 | 18 |
| 17 | Schwaben Augsburg | 11 | 11 | 22 | -11 | 9 |
| 18 | Landsberg | 10 | 10 | 16 | -6 | 7 |
| 19 | Ansbach | 10 | 10 | 21 | -11 | 10 |
