Prediction Audit: Buchbach vs Bayern München II Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Buchbach

Sep 11, 2026 - 17:00

2 1.23

0 1.37

xG Accuracy: 56%

Bayern München II

The model missed the final outcome (Buchbach win 2–0).

The model had projected Bayern München II at 38.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
1X2 Bayern München II Buchbach ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-0 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Outcome	Model	Closing Market	Difference	Signal
Buchbach	31.9%	48.2%	-16.2 pp	Market Higher
Draw	29.6%	22.7%	+6.9 pp	Model Higher
Bayern München II	38.5%	29.2%	+9.3 pp	Model Higher

The closing market estimates Buchbach's win probability at 48.2%, compared with the model's estimate of 31.9%, a difference of 16.2 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Buchbach win 2–0.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Buchbach than the current fair estimate.

Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

1X2: model leaned Bayern München II; match finished Buchbach
Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Bayern München II by 16.2 percentage points (54.7% vs model 38.5%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

Sep 11, 2026 · 17:01 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Buchbach 31.9% · Draw 29.6% · Bayern München II 38.5%
- xG · Buchbach 1.23 — Bayern München II 1.37
Sep 11, 2026 · 16:31 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Buchbach 1.90 · Draw 4.04 · Bayern München II 3.14
- Implied 1X2 · Buchbach 48.2% · Draw 22.7% · Bayern München II 29.2%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Sep 11, 2026 · 17:01 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Buchbach 1.90 · Draw 4.04 · Bayern München II 3.14
- Implied 1X2 · Buchbach 48.2% · Draw 22.7% · Bayern München II 29.2%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Sep 11, 2026 · 17:00 UTC Kickoff
FT Full-time result Buchbach win · 2–0
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor

Historical Decision Monitor

Outcome Missed

Pre-match metrics (historical context)

Prediction Reliability 55/100 · Moderate

Validation: Warning
Large market gap (16 pp)

Evidence ★★★★★

No strong statistical edge
Pricing remains divergent
Validation warning

Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 6/100

Monitoring Confidence 19/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 05, 2026 · 01:48 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7034634

Closing Odds 1.9

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Buchbach win · Buchbach 2–0 Bayern München II

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?: This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?: xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?: Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?: Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: Regionalliga - Bayern
Fixture: Buchbach vs Bayern München II
Kickoff: 2026-09-11 17:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 31.9% · Draw 29.6% · Away 38.5%
xG (showing): Buchbach 1.23 — Bayern München II 1.37 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
Model: 51.8% · Implied: 33.6% · Probability edge: +18.2 pts · Est. EV: +43.0%
BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Regionalliga - Bayern — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Buchbach	10	8	2	0	26
2	Memmingen	11	6	3	2	21
3	Illertissen	11	5	3	3	18
4	SpVgg Unterhaching	9	5	3	1	18
5	Eichstätt	11	5	3	3	18
6	Wacker Burghausen	11	5	2	4	17
7	TSV 1860 München	10	4	5	1	17
8	Vilzing	10	4	4	2	16
9	Augsburg II	11	4	3	4	15
10	Bayern München II	10	4	2	4	14
11	Bayreuth	11	4	1	6	13
12	Eltersdorf	10	3	3	4	12
13	FC Schweinfurt 05	10	3	2	5	11
14	Nürnberg II	10	3	1	6	10
15	Greuther Fürth II	10	3	1	6	10
16	Ansbach	10	3	1	6	10
17	Schwaben Augsburg	11	2	3	6	9
18	Aubstadt	10	2	2	6	8
19	Landsberg	10	1	4	5	7

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Wacker Burghausen	11	27	19	+8	17
2	Buchbach	10	23	7	+16	26
3	TSV 1860 München	10	20	13	+7	17
4	Illertissen	11	20	15	+5	18
5	Nürnberg II	10	18	17	+1	10
6	Augsburg II	11	18	23	-5	15
7	Vilzing	10	17	15	+2	16
8	Bayreuth	11	17	18	-1	13
9	Eltersdorf	10	15	16	-1	12
10	FC Schweinfurt 05	10	15	23	-8	11
11	Eichstätt	11	14	15	-1	18
12	Greuther Fürth II	10	14	17	-3	10
13	Aubstadt	10	14	19	-5	8
14	Memmingen	11	13	7	+6	21
15	Bayern München II	10	13	11	+2	14
16	SpVgg Unterhaching	9	12	7	+5	18
17	Schwaben Augsburg	11	11	22	-11	9
18	Landsberg	10	10	16	-6	7
19	Ansbach	10	10	21	-11	10