Predictions / Football / Germany. Regionalliga - Bayern / Aubstadt vs SpVgg Unterhaching

Prediction Audit: Aubstadt vs SpVgg Unterhaching Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Aubstadt Aubstadt
Sep 11, 2026 - 17:00
2 1.21
3 1.39
xG Accuracy: 52%
SpVgg Unterhaching SpVgg Unterhaching

AI correctly predicted the SpVgg Unterhaching win.

The match finished 2–3, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 SpVgg Unterhaching SpVgg Unterhaching ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-3 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The closing market prices SpVgg Unterhaching higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: SpVgg Unterhaching -5.6 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Aubstadt 31.0% 28.2% +2.8 pp Aligned
Draw 29.5% 26.7% +2.8 pp Aligned
SpVgg Unterhaching 39.5% 45.1% -5.6 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates SpVgg Unterhaching's win probability at 45.1%, compared with the model's estimate of 39.5%, a difference of 5.6 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (SpVgg Unterhaching win 2–3).

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on SpVgg Unterhaching. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 5 goals materialised

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (5 goals)

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced SpVgg Unterhaching higher (45.1% vs model 39.5%, 5.6 pp), but the model's lean was validated (SpVgg Unterhaching win 2–3).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 11, 2026 · 17:01 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Aubstadt 31.0% · Draw 29.5% · SpVgg Unterhaching 39.5%
    • xG · Aubstadt 1.21 — SpVgg Unterhaching 1.39
  2. Sep 11, 2026 · 16:31 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Aubstadt 3.24 · Draw 3.43 · SpVgg Unterhaching 2.03
    • Implied 1X2 · Aubstadt 28.2% · Draw 26.7% · SpVgg Unterhaching 45.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 11, 2026 · 17:00 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Aubstadt 3.24 · Draw 3.43 · SpVgg Unterhaching 2.03
    • Implied 1X2 · Aubstadt 28.2% · Draw 26.7% · SpVgg Unterhaching 45.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 11, 2026 · 17:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result SpVgg Unterhaching win · 2–3
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 76/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Market Compatibility 71/100
Betting Confidence 79/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 05, 2026 · 01:48 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7034594

Closing Odds 2.03
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result SpVgg Unterhaching win · Aubstadt 2–3 SpVgg Unterhaching
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Regionalliga - Bayern
  • Fixture: Aubstadt vs SpVgg Unterhaching
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-11 17:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 31.0% · Draw 29.5% · Away 39.5%
  • xG (showing): Aubstadt 1.21 — SpVgg Unterhaching 1.39 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 46.0% · Probability edge: +5.8 pts · Est. EV: +6.2%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Regionalliga - Bayern Regionalliga - Bayern — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Buchbach 10 8 2 0 26
2 Memmingen 11 6 3 2 21
3 Illertissen 11 5 3 3 18
4 SpVgg Unterhaching 9 5 3 1 18
5 Eichstätt 11 5 3 3 18
6 Wacker Burghausen 11 5 2 4 17
7 TSV 1860 München 10 4 5 1 17
8 Vilzing 10 4 4 2 16
9 Augsburg II 11 4 3 4 15
10 Bayern München II 10 4 2 4 14
11 Bayreuth 11 4 1 6 13
12 Eltersdorf 10 3 3 4 12
13 FC Schweinfurt 05 10 3 2 5 11
14 Nürnberg II 10 3 1 6 10
15 Greuther Fürth II 10 3 1 6 10
16 Ansbach 10 3 1 6 10
17 Schwaben Augsburg 11 2 3 6 9
18 Aubstadt 10 2 2 6 8
19 Landsberg 10 1 4 5 7
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Wacker Burghausen 11 27 19 +8 17
2 Buchbach 10 23 7 +16 26
3 TSV 1860 München 10 20 13 +7 17
4 Illertissen 11 20 15 +5 18
5 Nürnberg II 10 18 17 +1 10
6 Augsburg II 11 18 23 -5 15
7 Vilzing 10 17 15 +2 16
8 Bayreuth 11 17 18 -1 13
9 Eltersdorf 10 15 16 -1 12
10 FC Schweinfurt 05 10 15 23 -8 11
11 Eichstätt 11 14 15 -1 18
12 Greuther Fürth II 10 14 17 -3 10
13 Aubstadt 10 14 19 -5 8
14 Memmingen 11 13 7 +6 21
15 Bayern München II 10 13 11 +2 14
16 SpVgg Unterhaching 9 12 7 +5 18
17 Schwaben Augsburg 11 11 22 -11 9
18 Landsberg 10 10 16 -6 7
19 Ansbach 10 10 21 -11 10
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