AI correctly predicted the Managua win.
The match finished 0–3, validating the model's directional assessment.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Managua Managua ✔ Correct
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-3 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matagalpa | 31.9% | 21.6% | +10.3 pp | Model Edge |
| Draw | 29.6% | 23.6% | +6.0 pp | Model Higher |
| Managua | 38.5% | 54.8% | -16.3 pp | Market Higher |
The closing market estimates Managua's win probability at 54.8%, compared with the model's estimate of 38.5%, a difference of 16.3 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Managua win 0–3).
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Managua than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Managua higher (54.8% vs model 38.5%, 16.3 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Managua win 0–3).
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Aug 10, 2026 · 00:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Matagalpa 31.9% · Draw 29.6% · Managua 38.5%
- xG · Matagalpa 1.23 — Managua 1.37
-
Aug 10, 2026 · 00:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Matagalpa 4.18 · Draw 3.83 · Managua 1.65
- Implied 1X2 · Matagalpa 21.6% · Draw 23.6% · Managua 54.8%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 10, 2026 · 00:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Matagalpa 4.18 · Draw 3.83 · Managua 1.65
- Implied 1X2 · Matagalpa 21.6% · Draw 23.6% · Managua 54.8%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 10, 2026 · 01:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Managua win · 0–3
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (16 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Pricing remains divergent
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Primera Division — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Managua | 9 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 23 |
| 2 | Diriangén | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 21 |
| 3 | Real Estelí | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 18 |
| 4 | UNAN Managua | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 17 |
| 5 | San Marcos | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 11 |
| 6 | H&H Export | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 11 |
| 7 | Matagalpa | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 9 |
| 8 | Walter Ferretti | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 7 |
| 9 | Jalapa | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 7 |
| 10 | Rancho Santana | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 5 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Managua | 9 | 27 | 9 | +18 | 23 |
| 2 | Diriangén | 9 | 18 | 7 | +11 | 21 |
| 3 | Real Estelí | 9 | 17 | 6 | +11 | 18 |
| 4 | Walter Ferretti | 10 | 12 | 17 | -5 | 7 |
| 5 | UNAN Managua | 9 | 11 | 7 | +4 | 17 |
| 6 | San Marcos | 9 | 9 | 12 | -3 | 11 |
| 7 | H&H Export | 9 | 9 | 17 | -8 | 11 |
| 8 | Rancho Santana | 9 | 7 | 14 | -7 | 5 |
| 9 | Jalapa | 10 | 5 | 14 | -9 | 7 |
| 10 | Matagalpa | 9 | 4 | 16 | -12 | 9 |
