AI correctly predicted the H&H Export win.
The match finished 0–1, validating the model's directional assessment.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 H&H Export H&H Export ✔ Correct
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 0-0 0-1 ✔ Correct
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rancho Santana | 30.1% | 26.6% | +3.6 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 29.4% | 26.3% | +3.2 pp | Aligned |
| H&H Export | 40.4% | 47.2% | -6.8 pp | Market Higher |
The closing market estimates H&H Export's win probability at 47.2%, compared with the model's estimate of 40.4%, a difference of 6.8 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (H&H Export win 0–1).
Market Assessment
The market and model broadly agree on H&H Export. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
- Exact score 0–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced H&H Export higher (47.2% vs model 40.4%, 6.8 pp), but the model's lean was validated (H&H Export win 0–1).
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Aug 01, 2026 · 23:00 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Rancho Santana 30.1% · Draw 29.4% · H&H Export 40.5%
- xG · Rancho Santana 1.19 — H&H Export 1.41
-
Aug 01, 2026 · 22:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Rancho Santana 3.41 · Draw 3.45 · H&H Export 1.92
- Implied 1X2 · Rancho Santana 26.6% · Draw 26.3% · H&H Export 47.2%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 01, 2026 · 23:00 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Rancho Santana 3.41 · Draw 3.45 · H&H Export 1.92
- Implied 1X2 · Rancho Santana 26.6% · Draw 26.3% · H&H Export 47.2%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 01, 2026 · 23:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result H&H Export win · 0–1
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Pass
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Primera Division — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Managua | 9 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 23 |
| 2 | Diriangén | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 21 |
| 3 | Real Estelí | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 18 |
| 4 | UNAN Managua | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 17 |
| 5 | San Marcos | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 11 |
| 6 | H&H Export | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 11 |
| 7 | Matagalpa | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 9 |
| 8 | Walter Ferretti | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 7 |
| 9 | Jalapa | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 7 |
| 10 | Rancho Santana | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 5 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Managua | 9 | 27 | 9 | +18 | 23 |
| 2 | Diriangén | 9 | 18 | 7 | +11 | 21 |
| 3 | Real Estelí | 9 | 17 | 6 | +11 | 18 |
| 4 | Walter Ferretti | 10 | 12 | 17 | -5 | 7 |
| 5 | UNAN Managua | 9 | 11 | 7 | +4 | 17 |
| 6 | San Marcos | 9 | 9 | 12 | -3 | 11 |
| 7 | H&H Export | 9 | 9 | 17 | -8 | 11 |
| 8 | Rancho Santana | 9 | 7 | 14 | -7 | 5 |
| 9 | Jalapa | 10 | 5 | 14 | -9 | 7 |
| 10 | Matagalpa | 9 | 4 | 16 | -12 | 9 |
