Predictions / Football / Turkey. 1. Lig / Pendikspor vs BB Bodrumspor

Prediction Audit: Pendikspor vs BB Bodrumspor Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Pendikspor Pendikspor
Sep 20, 2026 - 14:00
1 1.26
1 1.34
xG Accuracy: 85%
BB Bodrumspor BB Bodrumspor

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).

The model had projected BB Bodrumspor at 37.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 BB Bodrumspor Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Pendikspor higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Pendikspor -18.6 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Pendikspor 33.3% 51.9% -18.6 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.6% 27.4% +2.3 pp Aligned
BB Bodrumspor 37.1% 20.8% +16.3 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates Pendikspor's win probability at 51.9%, compared with the model's estimate of 33.3%, a difference of 18.6 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Draw 1–1.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Pendikspor than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (2 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned BB Bodrumspor; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on BB Bodrumspor by 18.6 percentage points (55.7% vs model 37.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 20, 2026 · 14:07 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Pendikspor 33.4% · Draw 29.6% · BB Bodrumspor 37.0%
    • xG · Pendikspor 1.26 — BB Bodrumspor 1.34
  2. Sep 20, 2026 · 13:37 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Pendikspor 2.02 · Draw 3.29 · BB Bodrumspor 3.96
    • Implied 1X2 · Pendikspor 47.1% · Draw 28.9% · BB Bodrumspor 24.0%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 20, 2026 · 14:07 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Pendikspor 1.83 · Draw 3.47 · BB Bodrumspor 4.57
    • Implied 1X2 · Pendikspor 51.9% · Draw 27.4% · BB Bodrumspor 20.8%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 20, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 54/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (19 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 2/100
Monitoring Confidence 19/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 14, 2026 · 02:23 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8689531

Closing Odds 1.83
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Pendikspor 1–1 BB Bodrumspor
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: 1. Lig
  • Fixture: Pendikspor vs BB Bodrumspor
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-20 14:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 33.4% · Draw 29.6% · Away 37.0%
  • xG (showing): Pendikspor 1.26 — BB Bodrumspor 1.34 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): BB Bodrumspor
  • Model: 37.0% · Implied: 20.8% · Probability edge: +16.3 pts · Est. EV: +6.2%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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1. Lig 1. Lig — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Kayserispor 8 6 1 1 19
2 Bursaspor 8 6 1 1 19
3 76 Iğdır Belediyespor 8 5 1 2 16
4 Batman Petrolspor 8 5 1 2 16
5 Sarıyer 8 4 2 2 14
6 Keçiörengücü 8 3 4 1 13
7 Mardin BB 8 3 3 2 12
8 Antalyaspor 8 4 0 4 12
9 Fatih Karagümrük 8 3 3 2 12
10 Muğlaspor 8 2 5 1 11
11 Bandırmaspor 8 2 4 2 10
12 Pendikspor 8 2 4 2 10
13 Manisa BBSK 8 2 3 3 9
14 BB Bodrumspor 8 1 5 2 8
15 Sivasspor 8 1 5 2 8
16 Ümraniyespor 8 1 3 4 6
17 Erokspor 8 0 5 3 5
18 İstanbulspor 8 1 2 5 5
19 Van BB 8 1 3 4 4
20 Boluspor 8 0 1 7 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Keçiörengücü 8 17 10 +7 13
2 Bursaspor 8 16 7 +9 19
3 Kayserispor 8 15 3 +12 19
4 Batman Petrolspor 8 15 13 +2 16
5 Antalyaspor 8 14 13 +1 12
6 Bandırmaspor 8 12 5 +7 10
7 76 Iğdır Belediyespor 8 12 7 +5 16
8 Fatih Karagümrük 8 12 11 +1 12
9 Manisa BBSK 8 12 12 0 9
10 Sarıyer 8 11 9 +2 14
11 Pendikspor 8 10 13 -3 10
12 Mardin BB 8 9 5 +4 12
13 Sivasspor 8 9 11 -2 8
14 Muğlaspor 8 8 7 +1 11
15 Van BB 8 8 17 -9 4
16 BB Bodrumspor 8 7 6 +1 8
17 İstanbulspor 8 7 19 -12 5
18 Ümraniyespor 8 6 9 -3 6
19 Erokspor 8 4 10 -6 5
20 Boluspor 8 3 20 -17 1