Prediction Audit: İstanbulspor vs 76 Iğdır Belediyespor Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

İstanbulspor

Sep 07, 2026 - 14:00

1 1.36

2 1.24

xG Accuracy: 74%

76 Iğdır Belediyespor

The model missed the final outcome (76 Iğdır Belediyespor win 1–2).

The model had projected İstanbulspor at 38.0%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
1X2 İstanbulspor 76 Iğdır Belediyespor ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-2 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Outcome	Model	Closing Market	Difference	Signal
İstanbulspor	38.0%	28.4%	+9.6 pp	Model Higher
Draw	29.6%	27.6%	+2.0 pp	Aligned
76 Iğdır Belediyespor	32.4%	44.0%	-11.7 pp	Market Higher

The closing market estimates 76 Iğdır Belediyespor's win probability at 44.0%, compared with the model's estimate of 32.4%, a difference of 11.7 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was 76 Iğdır Belediyespor win 1–2.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about 76 Iğdır Belediyespor than the current fair estimate.

Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
Exact score 1–2 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on İstanbulspor by 11.7 percentage points (49.6% vs model 38.0%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

Sep 07, 2026 · 13:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · İstanbulspor 38.0% · Draw 29.6% · 76 Iğdır Belediyespor 32.4%
- xG · İstanbulspor 1.36 — 76 Iğdır Belediyespor 1.24
Sep 07, 2026 · 13:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · İstanbulspor 3.35 · Draw 3.45 · 76 Iğdır Belediyespor 2.16
- Implied 1X2 · İstanbulspor 28.4% · Draw 27.6% · 76 Iğdır Belediyespor 44.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Sep 07, 2026 · 13:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · İstanbulspor 3.35 · Draw 3.45 · 76 Iğdır Belediyespor 2.16
- Implied 1X2 · İstanbulspor 28.4% · Draw 27.6% · 76 Iğdır Belediyespor 44.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Sep 07, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
FT Full-time result 76 Iğdır Belediyespor win · 1–2
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor

Historical Decision Monitor

Outcome Missed

Pre-match metrics (historical context)

Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate

Validation: Warning
Large market gap (12 pp)

Evidence ★★★★★

No strong statistical edge
Market has already priced much of the edge
Validation warning

Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 14/100

Monitoring Confidence 20/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 01, 2026 · 02:17 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-6472388

Closing Odds 2.16

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result 76 Iğdır Belediyespor win · İstanbulspor 1–2 76 Iğdır Belediyespor

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?: This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?: xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?: Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?: Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: 1. Lig
Fixture: İstanbulspor vs 76 Iğdır Belediyespor
Kickoff: 2026-09-07 14:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 38.0% · Draw 29.6% · Away 32.4%
xG (showing): İstanbulspor 1.36 — 76 Iğdır Belediyespor 1.24 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
Model: 51.8% · Implied: 48.3% · Probability edge: +3.5 pts · Est. EV: +3.6%
BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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1. Lig — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Kayserispor	8	6	1	1	19
2	Bursaspor	8	6	1	1	19
3	76 Iğdır Belediyespor	8	5	1	2	16
4	Batman Petrolspor	8	5	1	2	16
5	Sarıyer	8	4	2	2	14
6	Keçiörengücü	8	3	4	1	13
7	Mardin BB	8	3	3	2	12
8	Antalyaspor	8	4	0	4	12
9	Fatih Karagümrük	8	3	3	2	12
10	Muğlaspor	8	2	5	1	11
11	Bandırmaspor	8	2	4	2	10
12	Pendikspor	8	2	4	2	10
13	Manisa BBSK	8	2	3	3	9
14	BB Bodrumspor	8	1	5	2	8
15	Sivasspor	8	1	5	2	8
16	Ümraniyespor	8	1	3	4	6
17	Erokspor	8	0	5	3	5
18	İstanbulspor	8	1	2	5	5
19	Van BB	8	1	3	4	4
20	Boluspor	8	0	1	7	1

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Keçiörengücü	8	17	10	+7	13
2	Bursaspor	8	16	7	+9	19
3	Kayserispor	8	15	3	+12	19
4	Batman Petrolspor	8	15	13	+2	16
5	Antalyaspor	8	14	13	+1	12
6	Bandırmaspor	8	12	5	+7	10
7	76 Iğdır Belediyespor	8	12	7	+5	16
8	Fatih Karagümrük	8	12	11	+1	12
9	Manisa BBSK	8	12	12	0	9
10	Sarıyer	8	11	9	+2	14
11	Pendikspor	8	10	13	-3	10
12	Mardin BB	8	9	5	+4	12
13	Sivasspor	8	9	11	-2	8
14	Muğlaspor	8	8	7	+1	11
15	Van BB	8	8	17	-9	4
16	BB Bodrumspor	8	7	6	+1	8
17	İstanbulspor	8	7	19	-12	5
18	Ümraniyespor	8	6	9	-3	6
19	Erokspor	8	4	10	-6	5
20	Boluspor	8	3	20	-17	1