Predictions / Football / Turkey. 1. Lig / Batman Petrolspor vs Fatih Karagümrük

Prediction Audit: Batman Petrolspor vs Fatih Karagümrük Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Batman Petrolspor Batman Petrolspor
Sep 06, 2026 - 17:00
4 1.26
3 1.34
xG Accuracy: 30%
Fatih Karagümrük Fatih Karagümrük

The model missed the final outcome (Batman Petrolspor win 4–3).

The model had projected Fatih Karagümrük at 37.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (7 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Fatih Karagümrük Batman Petrolspor ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 4-3 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Batman Petrolspor higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Batman Petrolspor -12.5 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Batman Petrolspor 33.3% 45.8% -12.5 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.6% 26.2% +3.4 pp Aligned
Fatih Karagümrük 37.1% 28.0% +9.1 pp Model Higher

The closing market estimates Batman Petrolspor's win probability at 45.8%, compared with the model's estimate of 33.3%, a difference of 12.5 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Batman Petrolspor win 4–3.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Batman Petrolspor than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 7 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (7 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned Fatih Karagümrük; match finished Batman Petrolspor

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Fatih Karagümrük by 12.5 percentage points (49.6% vs model 37.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 06, 2026 · 19:37 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Batman Petrolspor 33.4% · Draw 29.6% · Fatih Karagümrük 37.0%
    • xG · Batman Petrolspor 1.26 — Fatih Karagümrük 1.34
  2. Sep 06, 2026 · 16:31 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Batman Petrolspor 2.08 · Draw 3.63 · Fatih Karagümrük 3.40
    • Implied 1X2 · Batman Petrolspor 45.8% · Draw 26.2% · Fatih Karagümrük 28.0%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 06, 2026 · 17:00 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Batman Petrolspor 2.08 · Draw 3.63 · Fatih Karagümrük 3.40
    • Implied 1X2 · Batman Petrolspor 45.8% · Draw 26.2% · Fatih Karagümrük 28.0%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 06, 2026 · 17:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Batman Petrolspor win · 4–3
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (12 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 12/100
Monitoring Confidence 20/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 31, 2026 · 08:06 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-6370330

Closing Odds 2.08
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Batman Petrolspor win · Batman Petrolspor 4–3 Fatih Karagümrük
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: 1. Lig
  • Fixture: Batman Petrolspor vs Fatih Karagümrük
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-06 17:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 45.0% · Draw 45.0% · Away 10.0%
  • xG (showing): Batman Petrolspor 1.26 — Fatih Karagümrük 1.34 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): See the Over/Under and BTTS cards for any directional lean text.
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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1. Lig 1. Lig — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Kayserispor 8 6 1 1 19
2 Bursaspor 8 6 1 1 19
3 76 Iğdır Belediyespor 8 5 1 2 16
4 Batman Petrolspor 8 5 1 2 16
5 Sarıyer 8 4 2 2 14
6 Keçiörengücü 8 3 4 1 13
7 Mardin BB 8 3 3 2 12
8 Antalyaspor 8 4 0 4 12
9 Fatih Karagümrük 8 3 3 2 12
10 Muğlaspor 8 2 5 1 11
11 Bandırmaspor 8 2 4 2 10
12 Pendikspor 8 2 4 2 10
13 Manisa BBSK 8 2 3 3 9
14 BB Bodrumspor 8 1 5 2 8
15 Sivasspor 8 1 5 2 8
16 Ümraniyespor 8 1 3 4 6
17 Erokspor 8 0 5 3 5
18 İstanbulspor 8 1 2 5 5
19 Van BB 8 1 3 4 4
20 Boluspor 8 0 1 7 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Keçiörengücü 8 17 10 +7 13
2 Bursaspor 8 16 7 +9 19
3 Kayserispor 8 15 3 +12 19
4 Batman Petrolspor 8 15 13 +2 16
5 Antalyaspor 8 14 13 +1 12
6 Bandırmaspor 8 12 5 +7 10
7 76 Iğdır Belediyespor 8 12 7 +5 16
8 Fatih Karagümrük 8 12 11 +1 12
9 Manisa BBSK 8 12 12 0 9
10 Sarıyer 8 11 9 +2 14
11 Pendikspor 8 10 13 -3 10
12 Mardin BB 8 9 5 +4 12
13 Sivasspor 8 9 11 -2 8
14 Muğlaspor 8 8 7 +1 11
15 Van BB 8 8 17 -9 4
16 BB Bodrumspor 8 7 6 +1 8
17 İstanbulspor 8 7 19 -12 5
18 Ümraniyespor 8 6 9 -3 6
19 Erokspor 8 4 10 -6 5
20 Boluspor 8 3 20 -17 1