Prediction Audit: Fatih Karagümrük vs Kayserispor Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Fatih Karagümrük

Sep 02, 2026 - 17:00

1 1.13

1 1.08

xG Accuracy: 94%

Kayserispor

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).

The model had projected Fatih Karagümrük at 35.0%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Fatih Karagümrük Draw ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 0-0, 2-1 1-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Outcome	Model	Closing Market	Difference	Signal
Fatih Karagümrük	35.0%	36.5%	-1.5 pp	Aligned
Draw	32.5%	26.9%	+5.6 pp	Model Higher
Kayserispor	32.5%	36.5%	-4.0 pp	Aligned

The statistical model estimates Draw's win probability at 32.5%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 26.9%, a difference of 5.6 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Draw 1–1.

Market Assessment

The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Draw.

Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
1X2: model leaned Fatih Karagümrük; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Fatih Karagümrük by 5.6 percentage points (29.4% vs model 35.0%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

Sep 02, 2026 · 16:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Fatih Karagümrük 35.0% · Draw 32.6% · Kayserispor 32.5%
- xG · Fatih Karagümrük 1.13 — Kayserispor 1.08
Sep 02, 2026 · 16:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Fatih Karagümrük 2.61 · Draw 3.54 · Kayserispor 2.61
- Implied 1X2 · Fatih Karagümrük 36.5% · Draw 26.9% · Kayserispor 36.5%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Sep 02, 2026 · 16:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Fatih Karagümrük 2.61 · Draw 3.54 · Kayserispor 2.61
- Implied 1X2 · Fatih Karagümrük 36.5% · Draw 26.9% · Kayserispor 36.5%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Sep 02, 2026 · 17:00 UTC Kickoff
FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe

Historical Decision No Primary Bet

Outcome Missed

Pre-match metrics (historical context)

Prediction Reliability 76/100 · High

Validation: Pass

Evidence ★★★★★

No strong statistical edge
Direction agrees with model lean
Validation passed

Market Compatibility 72/100

Betting Confidence 79/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 27, 2026 · 02:18 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-5624950

Closing Odds 3.54

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Draw · Fatih Karagümrük 1–1 Kayserispor

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?: This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?: xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?: Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?: Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: 1. Lig
Fixture: Fatih Karagümrük vs Kayserispor
Kickoff: 2026-09-02 17:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 35.0% · Draw 32.6% · Away 32.5%
xG (showing): Fatih Karagümrük 1.13 — Kayserispor 1.08 (total xG ≈ 2.21)
Value headline: None (actionable) — best tracked EV is about +0.8%, still below the +2.0% minimum for a headline / default stake (no default bet).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 62.0% · Over 2.5 38.0%); BTTS No (Yes 46.5% · No 53.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No
BTTS (model): Yes 46.5% · No 53.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (13.4%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

Related Predictions

See Upcoming 1. Lig Matches Track Fatih Karagümrük Next Match Prediction Track Kayserispor Next Match Prediction View Today's Football Predictions

Explore More Predictions Content

Get Premium Predictions for Fatih Karagümrük & Kayserispor!

Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.

Subscribe Now

Back to Predictions

1. Lig — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Kayserispor	8	6	1	1	19
2	Bursaspor	8	6	1	1	19
3	76 Iğdır Belediyespor	8	5	1	2	16
4	Batman Petrolspor	8	5	1	2	16
5	Sarıyer	8	4	2	2	14
6	Keçiörengücü	8	3	4	1	13
7	Mardin BB	8	3	3	2	12
8	Antalyaspor	8	4	0	4	12
9	Fatih Karagümrük	8	3	3	2	12
10	Muğlaspor	8	2	5	1	11
11	Bandırmaspor	8	2	4	2	10
12	Pendikspor	8	2	4	2	10
13	Manisa BBSK	8	2	3	3	9
14	BB Bodrumspor	8	1	5	2	8
15	Sivasspor	8	1	5	2	8
16	Ümraniyespor	8	1	3	4	6
17	Erokspor	8	0	5	3	5
18	İstanbulspor	8	1	2	5	5
19	Van BB	8	1	3	4	4
20	Boluspor	8	0	1	7	1

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Keçiörengücü	8	17	10	+7	13
2	Bursaspor	8	16	7	+9	19
3	Kayserispor	8	15	3	+12	19
4	Batman Petrolspor	8	15	13	+2	16
5	Antalyaspor	8	14	13	+1	12
6	Bandırmaspor	8	12	5	+7	10
7	76 Iğdır Belediyespor	8	12	7	+5	16
8	Fatih Karagümrük	8	12	11	+1	12
9	Manisa BBSK	8	12	12	0	9
10	Sarıyer	8	11	9	+2	14
11	Pendikspor	8	10	13	-3	10
12	Mardin BB	8	9	5	+4	12
13	Sivasspor	8	9	11	-2	8
14	Muğlaspor	8	8	7	+1	11
15	Van BB	8	8	17	-9	4
16	BB Bodrumspor	8	7	6	+1	8
17	İstanbulspor	8	7	19	-12	5
18	Ümraniyespor	8	6	9	-3	6
19	Erokspor	8	4	10	-6	5
20	Boluspor	8	3	20	-17	1