Prediction Audit: Antalyaspor vs Pendikspor Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Antalyaspor

Aug 22, 2026 - 18:30

2 1.28

3 1.32

xG Accuracy: 52%

Pendikspor

AI correctly predicted the Pendikspor win.

The match finished 2–3, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Pendikspor Pendikspor ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-3 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Outcome	Model	Closing Market	Difference	Signal
Antalyaspor	34.2%	43.9%	-9.7 pp	Market Higher
Draw	29.6%	25.7%	+4.0 pp	Aligned
Pendikspor	36.1%	30.4%	+5.7 pp	Model Higher

The closing market estimates Antalyaspor's win probability at 43.9%, compared with the model's estimate of 34.2%, a difference of 9.7 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Pendikspor win 2–3).

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on Antalyaspor. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 5 goals materialised
Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (5 goals)
Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Pendikspor higher (45.8% vs model 36.1%, 9.7 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Pendikspor win 2–3).

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

Aug 22, 2026 · 18:30 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Antalyaspor 34.2% · Draw 29.7% · Pendikspor 36.1%
- xG · Antalyaspor 1.28 — Pendikspor 1.32
Aug 22, 2026 · 18:02 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Antalyaspor 2.17 · Draw 3.71 · Pendikspor 3.13
- Implied 1X2 · Antalyaspor 43.9% · Draw 25.7% · Pendikspor 30.4%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Aug 22, 2026 · 18:30 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Antalyaspor 2.17 · Draw 3.71 · Pendikspor 3.13
- Implied 1X2 · Antalyaspor 43.9% · Draw 25.7% · Pendikspor 30.4%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Aug 22, 2026 · 18:30 UTC Kickoff
FT Full-time result Pendikspor win · 2–3
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor

Historical Decision Monitor

Outcome Validated

Pre-match metrics (historical context)

Prediction Reliability 74/100 · High

Validation: Pass

Evidence ★★★★★

No strong statistical edge
Direction agrees with model lean
Validation passed

Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 17/100

Monitoring Confidence 33/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 16, 2026 · 03:03 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-4241734

Closing Odds 2.17

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Pendikspor win · Antalyaspor 2–3 Pendikspor

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?: This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?: xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?: Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?: Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: 1. Lig
Fixture: Antalyaspor vs Pendikspor
Kickoff: 2026-08-22 18:30:00
1X2 (model): Home 34.2% · Draw 29.7% · Away 36.1%
xG (showing): Antalyaspor 1.28 — Pendikspor 1.32 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None (actionable) — best tracked EV is about +0.1%, still below the +2.0% minimum for a headline / default stake (no default bet).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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1. Lig — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Kayserispor	8	6	1	1	19
2	Bursaspor	8	6	1	1	19
3	76 Iğdır Belediyespor	8	5	1	2	16
4	Batman Petrolspor	8	5	1	2	16
5	Sarıyer	8	4	2	2	14
6	Keçiörengücü	8	3	4	1	13
7	Mardin BB	8	3	3	2	12
8	Antalyaspor	8	4	0	4	12
9	Fatih Karagümrük	8	3	3	2	12
10	Muğlaspor	8	2	5	1	11
11	Bandırmaspor	8	2	4	2	10
12	Pendikspor	8	2	4	2	10
13	Manisa BBSK	8	2	3	3	9
14	BB Bodrumspor	8	1	5	2	8
15	Sivasspor	8	1	5	2	8
16	Ümraniyespor	8	1	3	4	6
17	Erokspor	8	0	5	3	5
18	İstanbulspor	8	1	2	5	5
19	Van BB	8	1	3	4	4
20	Boluspor	8	0	1	7	1

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Keçiörengücü	8	17	10	+7	13
2	Bursaspor	8	16	7	+9	19
3	Kayserispor	8	15	3	+12	19
4	Batman Petrolspor	8	15	13	+2	16
5	Antalyaspor	8	14	13	+1	12
6	Bandırmaspor	8	12	5	+7	10
7	76 Iğdır Belediyespor	8	12	7	+5	16
8	Fatih Karagümrük	8	12	11	+1	12
9	Manisa BBSK	8	12	12	0	9
10	Sarıyer	8	11	9	+2	14
11	Pendikspor	8	10	13	-3	10
12	Mardin BB	8	9	5	+4	12
13	Sivasspor	8	9	11	-2	8
14	Muğlaspor	8	8	7	+1	11
15	Van BB	8	8	17	-9	4
16	BB Bodrumspor	8	7	6	+1	8
17	İstanbulspor	8	7	19	-12	5
18	Ümraniyespor	8	6	9	-3	6
19	Erokspor	8	4	10	-6	5
20	Boluspor	8	3	20	-17	1