Predictions / Football / Turkey. 1. Lig / 76 Iğdır Belediyespor vs Fatih Karagümrük

Prediction Audit: 76 Iğdır Belediyespor vs Fatih Karagümrük Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

76 Iğdır Belediyespor 76 Iğdır Belediyespor
Aug 09, 2026 - 16:00
2 1.26
0 1.34
xG Accuracy: 56%
Fatih Karagümrük Fatih Karagümrük

The model missed the final outcome (76 Iğdır Belediyespor win 2–0).

The model had projected Fatih Karagümrük at 37.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Fatih Karagümrük 76 Iğdır Belediyespor ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-0 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The closing market prices 76 Iğdır Belediyespor higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: 76 Iğdır Belediyespor -5.4 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
76 Iğdır Belediyespor 33.3% 38.7% -5.4 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.6% 29.6% +0.0 pp Aligned
Fatih Karagümrük 37.1% 31.7% +5.4 pp Model Higher

The closing market estimates 76 Iğdır Belediyespor's win probability at 38.7%, compared with the model's estimate of 33.3%, a difference of 5.4 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was 76 Iğdır Belediyespor win 2–0.

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on 76 Iğdır Belediyespor. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • 1X2: model leaned Fatih Karagümrük; match finished 76 Iğdır Belediyespor

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Fatih Karagümrük by 5.4 percentage points (42.5% vs model 37.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 09, 2026 · 16:01 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · 76 Iğdır Belediyespor 33.4% · Draw 29.6% · Fatih Karagümrük 37.0%
    • xG · 76 Iğdır Belediyespor 1.26 — Fatih Karagümrük 1.34
  2. Aug 09, 2026 · 15:32 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · 76 Iğdır Belediyespor 2.46 · Draw 3.22 · Fatih Karagümrük 3.01
    • Implied 1X2 · 76 Iğdır Belediyespor 38.7% · Draw 29.6% · Fatih Karagümrük 31.7%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 09, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · 76 Iğdır Belediyespor 2.46 · Draw 3.22 · Fatih Karagümrük 3.01
    • Implied 1X2 · 76 Iğdır Belediyespor 38.7% · Draw 29.6% · Fatih Karagümrük 31.7%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 09, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result 76 Iğdır Belediyespor win · 2–0
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 76/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Market Compatibility 25/100
Monitoring Confidence 34/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 04, 2026 · 01:28 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2966571

Closing Odds 2.46
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result 76 Iğdır Belediyespor win · 76 Iğdır Belediyespor 2–0 Fatih Karagümrük
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: 1. Lig
  • Fixture: 76 Iğdır Belediyespor vs Fatih Karagümrük
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-09 16:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 33.4% · Draw 29.6% · Away 37.0%
  • xG (showing): 76 Iğdır Belediyespor 1.26 — Fatih Karagümrük 1.34 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Predictions
1. Lig 1. Lig — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Kayserispor 8 6 1 1 19
2 Bursaspor 8 6 1 1 19
3 76 Iğdır Belediyespor 8 5 1 2 16
4 Batman Petrolspor 8 5 1 2 16
5 Sarıyer 8 4 2 2 14
6 Keçiörengücü 8 3 4 1 13
7 Mardin BB 8 3 3 2 12
8 Antalyaspor 8 4 0 4 12
9 Fatih Karagümrük 8 3 3 2 12
10 Muğlaspor 8 2 5 1 11
11 Bandırmaspor 8 2 4 2 10
12 Pendikspor 8 2 4 2 10
13 Manisa BBSK 8 2 3 3 9
14 BB Bodrumspor 8 1 5 2 8
15 Sivasspor 8 1 5 2 8
16 Ümraniyespor 8 1 3 4 6
17 Erokspor 8 0 5 3 5
18 İstanbulspor 8 1 2 5 5
19 Van BB 8 1 3 4 4
20 Boluspor 8 0 1 7 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Keçiörengücü 8 17 10 +7 13
2 Bursaspor 8 16 7 +9 19
3 Kayserispor 8 15 3 +12 19
4 Batman Petrolspor 8 15 13 +2 16
5 Antalyaspor 8 14 13 +1 12
6 Bandırmaspor 8 12 5 +7 10
7 76 Iğdır Belediyespor 8 12 7 +5 16
8 Fatih Karagümrük 8 12 11 +1 12
9 Manisa BBSK 8 12 12 0 9
10 Sarıyer 8 11 9 +2 14
11 Pendikspor 8 10 13 -3 10
12 Mardin BB 8 9 5 +4 12
13 Sivasspor 8 9 11 -2 8
14 Muğlaspor 8 8 7 +1 11
15 Van BB 8 8 17 -9 4
16 BB Bodrumspor 8 7 6 +1 8
17 İstanbulspor 8 7 19 -12 5
18 Ümraniyespor 8 6 9 -3 6
19 Erokspor 8 4 10 -6 5
20 Boluspor 8 3 20 -17 1