Predictions / Football / England. National League / Aldershot Town vs Tamworth

Prediction Audit: Aldershot Town vs Tamworth Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Aldershot Town Aldershot Town
Sep 26, 2026 - 14:00
5 1.21
1 1.39
xG Accuracy: 32%
Tamworth Tamworth

The model missed the final outcome (Aldershot Town win 5–1).

The model had projected Tamworth at 39.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (6 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Tamworth Aldershot Town ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 5-1 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The closing market prices Aldershot Town higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Aldershot Town -7.4 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Aldershot Town 31.0% 38.4% -7.4 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.5% 24.8% +4.7 pp Aligned
Tamworth 39.5% 36.8% +2.7 pp Aligned

The closing market estimates Aldershot Town's win probability at 38.4%, compared with the model's estimate of 31.0%, a difference of 7.4 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.

After full time, the result was Aldershot Town win 5–1.

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on Aldershot Town. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 6 goals materialised

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (6 goals)

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Tamworth by 7.4 percentage points (46.9% vs model 39.5%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 26, 2026 · 14:03 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Aldershot Town 31.0% · Draw 29.5% · Tamworth 39.5%
    • xG · Aldershot Town 1.21 — Tamworth 1.39
  2. Sep 26, 2026 · 13:40 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Aldershot Town 2.48 · Draw 3.84 · Tamworth 2.59
    • Implied 1X2 · Aldershot Town 38.4% · Draw 24.8% · Tamworth 36.8%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 26, 2026 · 14:02 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
    • 1X2 odds · Aldershot Town 2.48 · Draw 3.84 · Tamworth 2.59
    • Implied 1X2 · Aldershot Town 38.4% · Draw 24.8% · Tamworth 36.8%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 26, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Aldershot Town win · 5–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 75/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 22/100
Monitoring Confidence 33/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 21, 2026 · 01:49 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10099129

Closing Odds 2.48
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Aldershot Town win · Aldershot Town 5–1 Tamworth
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: National League
  • Fixture: Aldershot Town vs Tamworth
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-26 14:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 31.0% · Draw 29.5% · Away 39.5%
  • xG (showing): Aldershot Town 1.21 — Tamworth 1.39 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 38.4% · Probability edge: +13.5 pts · Est. EV: +32.1%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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National League National League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Boreham Wood 9 7 2 0 23
2 Southend 9 6 2 1 20
3 Kidderminster Harriers 9 5 3 1 18
4 AFC Fylde 9 5 2 2 17
5 Harrogate Town 9 5 1 3 16
6 Sutton Utd 9 5 1 3 16
7 Yeovil Town 9 4 3 2 15
8 Aldershot Town 9 4 3 2 15
9 AFC Hornchurch 9 5 0 4 15
10 Altrincham 9 5 0 4 15
11 Worthing 9 4 2 3 14
12 Eastleigh 9 4 2 3 14
13 FC Halifax Town 9 4 1 4 13
14 Forest Green 9 4 1 4 13
15 Boston United 9 3 2 4 11
16 Carlisle 9 2 4 3 10
17 Barrow 9 2 3 4 9
18 Woking 9 2 3 4 9
19 Hartlepool 9 3 0 6 9
20 Wealdstone 9 2 2 5 8
21 Tamworth 9 2 2 5 8
22 Scunthorpe 9 2 1 6 7
23 Solihull Moors 9 1 1 7 4
24 Gateshead 9 1 1 7 4
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Boreham Wood 9 23 11 +12 23
2 Southend 9 23 12 +11 20
3 AFC Fylde 9 20 13 +7 17
4 Harrogate Town 9 20 16 +4 16
5 Yeovil Town 9 18 14 +4 15
6 Worthing 9 17 15 +2 14
7 Carlisle 9 16 14 +2 10
8 Tamworth 9 16 23 -7 8
9 FC Halifax Town 9 14 11 +3 13
10 Kidderminster Harriers 9 13 7 +6 18
11 Boston United 9 13 13 0 11
12 Forest Green 9 13 14 -1 13
13 Altrincham 9 12 15 -3 15
14 Eastleigh 9 11 10 +1 14
15 AFC Hornchurch 9 11 12 -1 15
16 Barrow 9 11 12 -1 9
17 Wealdstone 9 11 15 -4 8
18 Scunthorpe 9 11 15 -4 7
19 Aldershot Town 9 10 7 +3 15
20 Sutton Utd 9 10 10 0 16
21 Woking 9 10 12 -2 9
22 Solihull Moors 9 9 23 -14 4
23 Hartlepool 9 7 11 -4 9
24 Gateshead 9 6 20 -14 4
National League England. National League Predictions