Predictions / Football / England. National League / Boreham Wood vs Carlisle

Prediction Audit: Boreham Wood vs Carlisle Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Boreham Wood Boreham Wood
Sep 05, 2026 - 16:30
2 1.29
1 1.31
xG Accuracy: 76%
Carlisle Carlisle

The model missed the final outcome (Boreham Wood win 2–1).

The model had projected Carlisle at 35.6%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Carlisle Boreham Wood ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Boreham Wood higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Boreham Wood -21.8 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Boreham Wood 34.7% 56.5% -21.8 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.6% 22.3% +7.3 pp Model Higher
Carlisle 35.6% 21.1% +14.5 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates Boreham Wood's win probability at 56.5%, compared with the model's estimate of 34.7%, a difference of 21.8 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Boreham Wood win 2–1.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Exact score 2–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned Carlisle; match finished Boreham Wood

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Carlisle by 21.8 percentage points (57.4% vs model 35.6%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 05, 2026 · 16:29 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Boreham Wood 34.7% · Draw 29.7% · Carlisle 35.6%
    • xG · Boreham Wood 1.29 — Carlisle 1.31
  2. Sep 05, 2026 · 16:01 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Boreham Wood 1.68 · Draw 4.18 · Carlisle 4.58
    • Implied 1X2 · Boreham Wood 56.5% · Draw 22.7% · Carlisle 20.7%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 05, 2026 · 16:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Boreham Wood 1.68 · Draw 4.25 · Carlisle 4.49
    • Implied 1X2 · Boreham Wood 56.5% · Draw 22.3% · Carlisle 21.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 05, 2026 · 16:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Boreham Wood win · 2–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 52/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (22 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Monitoring Confidence 14/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 30, 2026 · 03:53 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-6163666

Closing Odds 1.68
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Boreham Wood win · Boreham Wood 2–1 Carlisle
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: National League
  • Fixture: Boreham Wood vs Carlisle
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-05 16:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 34.7% · Draw 29.7% · Away 35.6%
  • xG (showing): Boreham Wood 1.29 — Carlisle 1.31 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Carlisle
  • Model: 35.6% · Implied: 21.1% · Probability edge: +14.4 pts · Est. EV: +5.1%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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National League National League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Boreham Wood 9 7 2 0 23
2 Southend 9 6 2 1 20
3 Kidderminster Harriers 9 5 3 1 18
4 AFC Fylde 9 5 2 2 17
5 Harrogate Town 9 5 1 3 16
6 Sutton Utd 9 5 1 3 16
7 Yeovil Town 9 4 3 2 15
8 Aldershot Town 9 4 3 2 15
9 AFC Hornchurch 9 5 0 4 15
10 Altrincham 9 5 0 4 15
11 Worthing 9 4 2 3 14
12 Eastleigh 9 4 2 3 14
13 FC Halifax Town 9 4 1 4 13
14 Forest Green 9 4 1 4 13
15 Boston United 9 3 2 4 11
16 Carlisle 9 2 4 3 10
17 Barrow 9 2 3 4 9
18 Woking 9 2 3 4 9
19 Hartlepool 9 3 0 6 9
20 Wealdstone 9 2 2 5 8
21 Tamworth 9 2 2 5 8
22 Scunthorpe 9 2 1 6 7
23 Solihull Moors 9 1 1 7 4
24 Gateshead 9 1 1 7 4
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Boreham Wood 9 23 11 +12 23
2 Southend 9 23 12 +11 20
3 AFC Fylde 9 20 13 +7 17
4 Harrogate Town 9 20 16 +4 16
5 Yeovil Town 9 18 14 +4 15
6 Worthing 9 17 15 +2 14
7 Carlisle 9 16 14 +2 10
8 Tamworth 9 16 23 -7 8
9 FC Halifax Town 9 14 11 +3 13
10 Kidderminster Harriers 9 13 7 +6 18
11 Boston United 9 13 13 0 11
12 Forest Green 9 13 14 -1 13
13 Altrincham 9 12 15 -3 15
14 Eastleigh 9 11 10 +1 14
15 AFC Hornchurch 9 11 12 -1 15
16 Barrow 9 11 12 -1 9
17 Wealdstone 9 11 15 -4 8
18 Scunthorpe 9 11 15 -4 7
19 Aldershot Town 9 10 7 +3 15
20 Sutton Utd 9 10 10 0 16
21 Woking 9 10 12 -2 9
22 Solihull Moors 9 9 23 -14 4
23 Hartlepool 9 7 11 -4 9
24 Gateshead 9 6 20 -14 4
National League England. National League Predictions