Predictions / Football / England. National League / Sutton Utd vs Wealdstone

Prediction Audit: Sutton Utd vs Wealdstone Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Sutton Utd Sutton Utd
Aug 31, 2026 - 14:00
0 1.21
2 1.39
xG Accuracy: 61%
Wealdstone Wealdstone

AI correctly predicted the Wealdstone win.

The match finished 0–2, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Wealdstone Wealdstone ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-2 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Sutton Utd higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Sutton Utd -20.2 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Sutton Utd 31.0% 51.3% -20.2 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.5% 24.0% +5.5 pp Model Higher
Wealdstone 39.5% 24.7% +14.8 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates Sutton Utd's win probability at 51.3%, compared with the model's estimate of 31.0%, a difference of 20.2 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE10.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Wealdstone win 0–2).

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Wealdstone higher (59.8% vs model 39.5%, 20.2 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Wealdstone win 0–2).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 31, 2026 · 13:51 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Sutton Utd 31.0% · Draw 29.5% · Wealdstone 39.5%
    • xG · Sutton Utd 1.21 — Wealdstone 1.39
  2. Aug 31, 2026 · 13:31 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Sutton Utd 1.85 · Draw 3.95 · Wealdstone 3.84
    • Implied 1X2 · Sutton Utd 51.3% · Draw 24.0% · Wealdstone 24.7%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 31, 2026 · 13:51 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE10
    • 1X2 odds · Sutton Utd 1.85 · Draw 3.95 · Wealdstone 3.84
    • Implied 1X2 · Sutton Utd 51.3% · Draw 24.0% · Wealdstone 24.7%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 31, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Wealdstone win · 0–2
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 53/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (20 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Monitoring Confidence 15/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 25, 2026 · 02:38 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-5399768

Closing Odds 1.85
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Wealdstone win · Sutton Utd 0–2 Wealdstone
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: National League
  • Fixture: Sutton Utd vs Wealdstone
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-31 14:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 31.0% · Draw 29.5% · Away 39.5%
  • xG (showing): Sutton Utd 1.21 — Wealdstone 1.39 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Wealdstone
  • Model: 39.5% · Implied: 24.7% · Probability edge: +14.8 pts · Est. EV: +8.1%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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National League National League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Boreham Wood 9 7 2 0 23
2 Southend 9 6 2 1 20
3 Kidderminster Harriers 9 5 3 1 18
4 AFC Fylde 9 5 2 2 17
5 Harrogate Town 9 5 1 3 16
6 Sutton Utd 9 5 1 3 16
7 Yeovil Town 9 4 3 2 15
8 Aldershot Town 9 4 3 2 15
9 AFC Hornchurch 9 5 0 4 15
10 Altrincham 9 5 0 4 15
11 Worthing 9 4 2 3 14
12 Eastleigh 9 4 2 3 14
13 FC Halifax Town 9 4 1 4 13
14 Forest Green 9 4 1 4 13
15 Boston United 9 3 2 4 11
16 Carlisle 9 2 4 3 10
17 Barrow 9 2 3 4 9
18 Woking 9 2 3 4 9
19 Hartlepool 9 3 0 6 9
20 Wealdstone 9 2 2 5 8
21 Tamworth 9 2 2 5 8
22 Scunthorpe 9 2 1 6 7
23 Solihull Moors 9 1 1 7 4
24 Gateshead 9 1 1 7 4
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Boreham Wood 9 23 11 +12 23
2 Southend 9 23 12 +11 20
3 AFC Fylde 9 20 13 +7 17
4 Harrogate Town 9 20 16 +4 16
5 Yeovil Town 9 18 14 +4 15
6 Worthing 9 17 15 +2 14
7 Carlisle 9 16 14 +2 10
8 Tamworth 9 16 23 -7 8
9 FC Halifax Town 9 14 11 +3 13
10 Kidderminster Harriers 9 13 7 +6 18
11 Boston United 9 13 13 0 11
12 Forest Green 9 13 14 -1 13
13 Altrincham 9 12 15 -3 15
14 Eastleigh 9 11 10 +1 14
15 AFC Hornchurch 9 11 12 -1 15
16 Barrow 9 11 12 -1 9
17 Wealdstone 9 11 15 -4 8
18 Scunthorpe 9 11 15 -4 7
19 Aldershot Town 9 10 7 +3 15
20 Sutton Utd 9 10 10 0 16
21 Woking 9 10 12 -2 9
22 Solihull Moors 9 9 23 -14 4
23 Hartlepool 9 7 11 -4 9
24 Gateshead 9 6 20 -14 4
National League England. National League Predictions