Predictions / Football / England. National League / Yeovil Town vs Gateshead

Prediction Audit: Yeovil Town vs Gateshead Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Yeovil Town Yeovil Town
Aug 22, 2026 - 11:30
3 1.32
0 1.28
xG Accuracy: 44%
Gateshead Gateshead

AI correctly predicted the Yeovil Town win.

The match finished 3–0, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Yeovil Town Yeovil Town ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 3-0 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The closing market prices Yeovil Town higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Yeovil Town -9.6 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Yeovil Town 36.1% 45.7% -9.6 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.6% 28.0% +1.7 pp Aligned
Gateshead 34.2% 26.3% +8.0 pp Model Higher

The closing market estimates Yeovil Town's win probability at 45.7%, compared with the model's estimate of 36.1%, a difference of 9.6 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Yeovil Town win 3–0).

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on Yeovil Town. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Yeovil Town higher (45.7% vs model 36.1%, 9.6 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Yeovil Town win 3–0).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 22, 2026 · 11:32 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Yeovil Town 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Gateshead 34.2%
    • xG · Yeovil Town 1.32 — Gateshead 1.28
  2. Aug 22, 2026 · 11:05 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Yeovil Town 2.08 · Draw 3.40 · Gateshead 3.62
    • Implied 1X2 · Yeovil Town 45.7% · Draw 28.0% · Gateshead 26.3%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 22, 2026 · 11:32 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Yeovil Town 2.08 · Draw 3.40 · Gateshead 3.62
    • Implied 1X2 · Yeovil Town 45.7% · Draw 28.0% · Gateshead 26.3%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 22, 2026 · 11:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Yeovil Town win · 3–0
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 74/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 51/100
Betting Confidence 77/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 16, 2026 · 01:21 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-4216728

Closing Odds 2.08
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Yeovil Town win · Yeovil Town 3–0 Gateshead
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: National League
  • Fixture: Yeovil Town vs Gateshead
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-22 11:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.2%
  • xG (showing): Yeovil Town 1.32 — Gateshead 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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National League National League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Boreham Wood 9 7 2 0 23
2 Southend 9 6 2 1 20
3 Kidderminster Harriers 9 5 3 1 18
4 AFC Fylde 9 5 2 2 17
5 Harrogate Town 9 5 1 3 16
6 Sutton Utd 9 5 1 3 16
7 Yeovil Town 9 4 3 2 15
8 Aldershot Town 9 4 3 2 15
9 AFC Hornchurch 9 5 0 4 15
10 Altrincham 9 5 0 4 15
11 Worthing 9 4 2 3 14
12 Eastleigh 9 4 2 3 14
13 FC Halifax Town 9 4 1 4 13
14 Forest Green 9 4 1 4 13
15 Boston United 9 3 2 4 11
16 Carlisle 9 2 4 3 10
17 Barrow 9 2 3 4 9
18 Woking 9 2 3 4 9
19 Hartlepool 9 3 0 6 9
20 Wealdstone 9 2 2 5 8
21 Tamworth 9 2 2 5 8
22 Scunthorpe 9 2 1 6 7
23 Solihull Moors 9 1 1 7 4
24 Gateshead 9 1 1 7 4
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Boreham Wood 9 23 11 +12 23
2 Southend 9 23 12 +11 20
3 AFC Fylde 9 20 13 +7 17
4 Harrogate Town 9 20 16 +4 16
5 Yeovil Town 9 18 14 +4 15
6 Worthing 9 17 15 +2 14
7 Carlisle 9 16 14 +2 10
8 Tamworth 9 16 23 -7 8
9 FC Halifax Town 9 14 11 +3 13
10 Kidderminster Harriers 9 13 7 +6 18
11 Boston United 9 13 13 0 11
12 Forest Green 9 13 14 -1 13
13 Altrincham 9 12 15 -3 15
14 Eastleigh 9 11 10 +1 14
15 AFC Hornchurch 9 11 12 -1 15
16 Barrow 9 11 12 -1 9
17 Wealdstone 9 11 15 -4 8
18 Scunthorpe 9 11 15 -4 7
19 Aldershot Town 9 10 7 +3 15
20 Sutton Utd 9 10 10 0 16
21 Woking 9 10 12 -2 9
22 Solihull Moors 9 9 23 -14 4
23 Hartlepool 9 7 11 -4 9
24 Gateshead 9 6 20 -14 4
National League England. National League Predictions