Predictions / Football / England. National League / Worthing vs Forest Green

Prediction Audit: Worthing vs Forest Green Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Worthing Worthing
Aug 15, 2026 - 14:00
1 1.26
2 1.34
xG Accuracy: 78%
Forest Green Forest Green

AI correctly predicted the Forest Green win.

The match finished 1–2, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Forest Green Forest Green ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-2 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The closing market prices Forest Green higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Forest Green -9.6 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Worthing 33.3% 29.0% +4.3 pp Aligned
Draw 29.6% 24.4% +5.2 pp Model Higher
Forest Green 37.1% 46.6% -9.6 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates Forest Green's win probability at 46.6%, compared with the model's estimate of 37.1%, a difference of 9.6 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Forest Green win 1–2).

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on Forest Green. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Exact score 1–2 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Forest Green higher (46.7% vs model 37.1%, 9.6 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Forest Green win 1–2).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 15, 2026 · 14:14 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Worthing 33.4% · Draw 29.6% · Forest Green 37.0%
    • xG · Worthing 1.26 — Forest Green 1.34
  2. Aug 15, 2026 · 13:48 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Worthing 2.99 · Draw 3.73 · Forest Green 2.21
    • Implied 1X2 · Worthing 31.7% · Draw 25.4% · Forest Green 42.9%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 15, 2026 · 14:14 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Worthing 3.28 · Draw 3.90 · Forest Green 2.04
    • Implied 1X2 · Worthing 29.0% · Draw 24.4% · Forest Green 46.6%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 15, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Forest Green win · 1–2
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 74/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 52/100
Betting Confidence 77/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 09, 2026 · 02:15 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3353811

Closing Odds 2.04
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Forest Green win · Worthing 1–2 Forest Green
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: National League
  • Fixture: Worthing vs Forest Green
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-15 14:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 33.4% · Draw 29.6% · Away 37.0%
  • xG (showing): Worthing 1.26 — Forest Green 1.34 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None (actionable) — best tracked EV is about +0.7%, still below the +2.0% minimum for a headline / default stake (no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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National League National League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Boreham Wood 9 7 2 0 23
2 Southend 9 6 2 1 20
3 Kidderminster Harriers 9 5 3 1 18
4 AFC Fylde 9 5 2 2 17
5 Harrogate Town 9 5 1 3 16
6 Sutton Utd 9 5 1 3 16
7 Yeovil Town 9 4 3 2 15
8 Aldershot Town 9 4 3 2 15
9 AFC Hornchurch 9 5 0 4 15
10 Altrincham 9 5 0 4 15
11 Worthing 9 4 2 3 14
12 Eastleigh 9 4 2 3 14
13 FC Halifax Town 9 4 1 4 13
14 Forest Green 9 4 1 4 13
15 Boston United 9 3 2 4 11
16 Carlisle 9 2 4 3 10
17 Barrow 9 2 3 4 9
18 Woking 9 2 3 4 9
19 Hartlepool 9 3 0 6 9
20 Wealdstone 9 2 2 5 8
21 Tamworth 9 2 2 5 8
22 Scunthorpe 9 2 1 6 7
23 Solihull Moors 9 1 1 7 4
24 Gateshead 9 1 1 7 4
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Boreham Wood 9 23 11 +12 23
2 Southend 9 23 12 +11 20
3 AFC Fylde 9 20 13 +7 17
4 Harrogate Town 9 20 16 +4 16
5 Yeovil Town 9 18 14 +4 15
6 Worthing 9 17 15 +2 14
7 Carlisle 9 16 14 +2 10
8 Tamworth 9 16 23 -7 8
9 FC Halifax Town 9 14 11 +3 13
10 Kidderminster Harriers 9 13 7 +6 18
11 Boston United 9 13 13 0 11
12 Forest Green 9 13 14 -1 13
13 Altrincham 9 12 15 -3 15
14 Eastleigh 9 11 10 +1 14
15 AFC Hornchurch 9 11 12 -1 15
16 Barrow 9 11 12 -1 9
17 Wealdstone 9 11 15 -4 8
18 Scunthorpe 9 11 15 -4 7
19 Aldershot Town 9 10 7 +3 15
20 Sutton Utd 9 10 10 0 16
21 Woking 9 10 12 -2 9
22 Solihull Moors 9 9 23 -14 4
23 Hartlepool 9 7 11 -4 9
24 Gateshead 9 6 20 -14 4
National League England. National League Predictions