Prediction Audit: Tamworth vs AFC Fylde Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Tamworth

Aug 15, 2026 - 14:00

1 1.44

2 1.16

xG Accuracy: 70%

AFC Fylde

The model missed the final outcome (AFC Fylde win 1–2).

The model had projected Tamworth at 41.9%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Tamworth AFC Fylde ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 1-2 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Outcome	Model	Closing Market	Difference	Signal
Tamworth	41.9%	42.7%	-0.8 pp	Aligned
Draw	29.3%	24.9%	+4.4 pp	Aligned
AFC Fylde	28.8%	32.4%	-3.6 pp	Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was AFC Fylde win 1–2.

Market Assessment

The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.

Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.

Post Match Insights

What worked

Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
1X2: model leaned Tamworth; match finished AFC Fylde

Market lesson

The full-time result was AFC Fylde win 1–2, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

Aug 15, 2026 · 14:14 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Tamworth 41.9% · Draw 29.3% · AFC Fylde 28.8%
- xG · Tamworth 1.44 — AFC Fylde 1.16
Aug 15, 2026 · 13:47 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Tamworth 2.23 · Draw 3.83 · AFC Fylde 2.94
- Implied 1X2 · Tamworth 42.7% · Draw 24.9% · AFC Fylde 32.4%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Aug 15, 2026 · 14:14 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Tamworth 2.23 · Draw 3.83 · AFC Fylde 2.94
- Implied 1X2 · Tamworth 42.7% · Draw 24.9% · AFC Fylde 32.4%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Aug 15, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
FT Full-time result AFC Fylde win · 1–2
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe

Historical Decision No Primary Bet

Outcome Missed

Pre-match metrics (historical context)

Prediction Reliability 77/100 · High

Validation: Pass

Evidence ★★★★★

No strong statistical edge
Direction agrees with model lean
Validation passed

Market Compatibility 77/100

Betting Confidence 80/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 09, 2026 · 02:14 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3353776

Closing Odds 3.83

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result AFC Fylde win · Tamworth 1–2 AFC Fylde

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?: This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?: xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?: Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?: Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: National League
Fixture: Tamworth vs AFC Fylde
Kickoff: 2026-08-15 14:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 41.9% · Draw 29.3% · Away 28.8%
xG (showing): Tamworth 1.44 — AFC Fylde 1.16 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None (actionable) — best tracked EV is about +0.1%, still below the +2.0% minimum for a headline / default stake (no default bet).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.0% · No 46.0%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.0% · No 46.0%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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National League — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Boreham Wood	9	7	2	0	23
2	Southend	9	6	2	1	20
3	Kidderminster Harriers	9	5	3	1	18
4	AFC Fylde	9	5	2	2	17
5	Harrogate Town	9	5	1	3	16
6	Sutton Utd	9	5	1	3	16
7	Yeovil Town	9	4	3	2	15
8	Aldershot Town	9	4	3	2	15
9	AFC Hornchurch	9	5	0	4	15
10	Altrincham	9	5	0	4	15
11	Worthing	9	4	2	3	14
12	Eastleigh	9	4	2	3	14
13	FC Halifax Town	9	4	1	4	13
14	Forest Green	9	4	1	4	13
15	Boston United	9	3	2	4	11
16	Carlisle	9	2	4	3	10
17	Barrow	9	2	3	4	9
18	Woking	9	2	3	4	9
19	Hartlepool	9	3	0	6	9
20	Wealdstone	9	2	2	5	8
21	Tamworth	9	2	2	5	8
22	Scunthorpe	9	2	1	6	7
23	Solihull Moors	9	1	1	7	4
24	Gateshead	9	1	1	7	4

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Boreham Wood	9	23	11	+12	23
2	Southend	9	23	12	+11	20
3	AFC Fylde	9	20	13	+7	17
4	Harrogate Town	9	20	16	+4	16
5	Yeovil Town	9	18	14	+4	15
6	Worthing	9	17	15	+2	14
7	Carlisle	9	16	14	+2	10
8	Tamworth	9	16	23	-7	8
9	FC Halifax Town	9	14	11	+3	13
10	Kidderminster Harriers	9	13	7	+6	18
11	Boston United	9	13	13	0	11
12	Forest Green	9	13	14	-1	13
13	Altrincham	9	12	15	-3	15
14	Eastleigh	9	11	10	+1	14
15	AFC Hornchurch	9	11	12	-1	15
16	Barrow	9	11	12	-1	9
17	Wealdstone	9	11	15	-4	8
18	Scunthorpe	9	11	15	-4	7
19	Aldershot Town	9	10	7	+3	15
20	Sutton Utd	9	10	10	0	16
21	Woking	9	10	12	-2	9
22	Solihull Moors	9	9	23	-14	4
23	Hartlepool	9	7	11	-4	9
24	Gateshead	9	6	20	-14	4