Prediction Audit: Sutton Utd vs Altrincham Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Sutton Utd

Aug 15, 2026 - 14:00

1 1.22

0 1.38

xG Accuracy: 64%

Altrincham

The model missed the final outcome (Sutton Utd win 1–0).

The model had projected Altrincham at 39.0%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Altrincham Sutton Utd ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-0 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Outcome	Model	Closing Market	Difference	Signal
Sutton Utd	31.5%	46.9%	-15.4 pp	Market Higher
Draw	29.5%	25.7%	+3.8 pp	Aligned
Altrincham	39.0%	27.4%	+11.6 pp	Model Edge

The closing market estimates Sutton Utd's win probability at 46.9%, compared with the model's estimate of 31.5%, a difference of 15.4 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Sutton Utd win 1–0.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Sutton Utd than the current fair estimate.

Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
Exact score 1–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
1X2: model leaned Altrincham; match finished Sutton Utd

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Altrincham by 15.4 percentage points (54.4% vs model 39.0%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

Aug 15, 2026 · 14:14 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Sutton Utd 31.5% · Draw 29.5% · Altrincham 39.0%
- xG · Sutton Utd 1.22 — Altrincham 1.38
Aug 15, 2026 · 13:47 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Sutton Utd 2.03 · Draw 3.70 · Altrincham 3.47
- Implied 1X2 · Sutton Utd 46.9% · Draw 25.7% · Altrincham 27.4%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Aug 15, 2026 · 14:14 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Sutton Utd 2.03 · Draw 3.70 · Altrincham 3.47
- Implied 1X2 · Sutton Utd 46.9% · Draw 25.7% · Altrincham 27.4%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Aug 15, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
FT Full-time result Sutton Utd win · 1–0
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor

Historical Decision Monitor

Outcome Missed

Pre-match metrics (historical context)

Prediction Reliability 55/100 · Moderate

Validation: Warning
Large market gap (15 pp)

Evidence ★★★★★

No strong statistical edge
Pricing remains divergent
Validation warning

Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 8/100

Monitoring Confidence 19/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 09, 2026 · 02:14 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3353743

Closing Odds 2.03

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Sutton Utd win · Sutton Utd 1–0 Altrincham

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?: This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?: xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?: Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?: Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: National League
Fixture: Sutton Utd vs Altrincham
Kickoff: 2026-08-15 14:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 31.5% · Draw 29.5% · Away 39.0%
xG (showing): Sutton Utd 1.22 — Altrincham 1.38 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Altrincham
Model: 39.0% · Implied: 27.4% · Probability edge: +11.5 pts · Est. EV: +5.1%
BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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National League — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Boreham Wood	9	7	2	0	23
2	Southend	9	6	2	1	20
3	Kidderminster Harriers	9	5	3	1	18
4	AFC Fylde	9	5	2	2	17
5	Harrogate Town	9	5	1	3	16
6	Sutton Utd	9	5	1	3	16
7	Yeovil Town	9	4	3	2	15
8	Aldershot Town	9	4	3	2	15
9	AFC Hornchurch	9	5	0	4	15
10	Altrincham	9	5	0	4	15
11	Worthing	9	4	2	3	14
12	Eastleigh	9	4	2	3	14
13	FC Halifax Town	9	4	1	4	13
14	Forest Green	9	4	1	4	13
15	Boston United	9	3	2	4	11
16	Carlisle	9	2	4	3	10
17	Barrow	9	2	3	4	9
18	Woking	9	2	3	4	9
19	Hartlepool	9	3	0	6	9
20	Wealdstone	9	2	2	5	8
21	Tamworth	9	2	2	5	8
22	Scunthorpe	9	2	1	6	7
23	Solihull Moors	9	1	1	7	4
24	Gateshead	9	1	1	7	4

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Boreham Wood	9	23	11	+12	23
2	Southend	9	23	12	+11	20
3	AFC Fylde	9	20	13	+7	17
4	Harrogate Town	9	20	16	+4	16
5	Yeovil Town	9	18	14	+4	15
6	Worthing	9	17	15	+2	14
7	Carlisle	9	16	14	+2	10
8	Tamworth	9	16	23	-7	8
9	FC Halifax Town	9	14	11	+3	13
10	Kidderminster Harriers	9	13	7	+6	18
11	Boston United	9	13	13	0	11
12	Forest Green	9	13	14	-1	13
13	Altrincham	9	12	15	-3	15
14	Eastleigh	9	11	10	+1	14
15	AFC Hornchurch	9	11	12	-1	15
16	Barrow	9	11	12	-1	9
17	Wealdstone	9	11	15	-4	8
18	Scunthorpe	9	11	15	-4	7
19	Aldershot Town	9	10	7	+3	15
20	Sutton Utd	9	10	10	0	16
21	Woking	9	10	12	-2	9
22	Solihull Moors	9	9	23	-14	4
23	Hartlepool	9	7	11	-4	9
24	Gateshead	9	6	20	-14	4