The model missed the final outcome (Draw 3–3).
The model had projected Al Ansar at 49.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (6 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Al Ansar Draw ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 2-0, 0-1 3-3 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al Ansar | 49.1% | 55.9% | -6.8 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 28.2% | 24.8% | +3.4 pp | Aligned |
| Al Ahed | 22.7% | 19.3% | +3.4 pp | Aligned |
The closing market estimates Al Ansar's win probability at 55.9%, compared with the model's estimate of 49.1%, a difference of 6.8 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was Draw 3–3.
Market Assessment
The market and model broadly agree on Al Ansar. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (6 goals)
- 1X2: model leaned Al Ansar; match finished Draw
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Al Ansar by 6.8 percentage points (55.9% vs model 49.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Jul 12, 2026 · 19:50 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Al Ansar 49.2% · Draw 28.1% · Al Ahed 22.6%
- xG · Al Ansar 1.43 — Al Ahed 1.02
-
Jul 12, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Al Ansar 1.59 · Draw 3.59 · Al Ahed 4.60
- Implied 1X2 · Al Ansar 55.9% · Draw 24.8% · Al Ahed 19.3%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Jul 12, 2026 · 14:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Al Ansar 1.59 · Draw 3.59 · Al Ahed 4.60
- Implied 1X2 · Al Ansar 55.9% · Draw 24.8% · Al Ahed 19.3%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Jul 12, 2026 · 14:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 3–3
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Pass
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Premier League — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al Ansar | 21 | 17 | 2 | 2 | 53 |
| 2 | Al Nejmeh | 21 | 14 | 4 | 3 | 46 |
| 3 | Al Ahed | 21 | 13 | 1 | 7 | 40 |
| 4 | Jwaaya FC | 21 | 11 | 5 | 5 | 38 |
| 5 | Safa | 21 | 11 | 3 | 7 | 36 |
| 6 | Al Hikma | 21 | 9 | 3 | 9 | 30 |
| 7 | Shabab Al Sahel | 21 | 7 | 6 | 8 | 27 |
| 8 | Al Mabarrah | 21 | 5 | 7 | 9 | 22 |
| 9 | Reyady Abaseya | 21 | 5 | 5 | 11 | 20 |
| 10 | Tadamon Sour | 21 | 3 | 8 | 10 | 17 |
| 11 | Bourj | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 10 |
| 12 | Racing | 21 | 0 | 1 | 20 | 1 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al Ansar | 21 | 53 | 9 | +44 | 53 |
| 2 | Al Nejmeh | 21 | 42 | 10 | +32 | 46 |
| 3 | Al Ahed | 21 | 34 | 22 | +12 | 40 |
| 4 | Jwaaya FC | 21 | 31 | 14 | +17 | 38 |
| 5 | Safa | 21 | 30 | 17 | +13 | 36 |
| 6 | Al Hikma | 21 | 29 | 27 | +2 | 30 |
| 7 | Shabab Al Sahel | 21 | 22 | 21 | +1 | 27 |
| 8 | Reyady Abaseya | 21 | 16 | 30 | -14 | 20 |
| 9 | Tadamon Sour | 21 | 12 | 26 | -14 | 17 |
| 10 | Al Mabarrah | 21 | 12 | 36 | -24 | 22 |
| 11 | Bourj | 11 | 8 | 20 | -12 | 10 |
| 12 | Racing | 21 | 4 | 61 | -57 | 1 |
