The model missed the final outcome (Draw 2–2).
The model had projected Athletic Club at 38.6%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Athletic Club Draw ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-2 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Athletic Club | 38.6% | 50.1% | -11.5 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.2% | 26.5% | +2.7 pp | Aligned |
| Eibar | 32.2% | 23.4% | +8.9 pp | Model Higher |
The closing market estimates Athletic Club's win probability at 50.1%, compared with the model's estimate of 38.6%, a difference of 11.5 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was Draw 2–2.
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Athletic Club than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
- 1X2: model leaned Athletic Club; match finished Draw
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Athletic Club by 11.5 percentage points (50.1% vs model 38.6%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Jul 25, 2026 · 22:40 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Athletic Club 38.6% · Draw 29.1% · Eibar 32.2%
- xG · Athletic Club 1.27 — Eibar 1.33
-
Jul 25, 2026 · 16:31 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Athletic Club 1.77 · Draw 3.35 · Eibar 3.80
- Implied 1X2 · Athletic Club 50.1% · Draw 26.5% · Eibar 23.4%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Jul 25, 2026 · 17:01 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Athletic Club 1.77 · Draw 3.35 · Eibar 3.80
- Implied 1X2 · Athletic Club 50.1% · Draw 26.5% · Eibar 23.4%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Jul 25, 2026 · 17:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 2–2
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (12 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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