Prediction Audit: Venezia vs Vis Pesaro Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Venezia

Jul 23, 2026 - 15:30

8 1.42

0 1.18

xG Accuracy: 12%

Vis Pesaro

AI correctly predicted the Venezia win.

The match finished 8–0, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (8 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Venezia Venezia ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 8-0 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Outcome	Model	Closing Market	Difference	Signal
Venezia	40.9%	86.6%	-45.7 pp	Market Higher
Draw	29.4%	8.9%	+20.5 pp	Model Edge
Vis Pesaro	29.7%	4.5%	+25.2 pp	Model Edge

The closing market estimates Venezia's win probability at 86.6%, compared with the model's estimate of 40.9%, a difference of 45.7 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Venezia win 8–0).

Post Match Insights

What worked

Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 8 goals materialised

What failed

Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (8 goals)

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Venezia higher (86.6% vs model 40.9%, 45.7 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Venezia win 8–0).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

Jul 23, 2026 · 19:27 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Venezia 41.0% · Draw 29.4% · Vis Pesaro 29.6%
- xG · Venezia 1.42 — Vis Pesaro 1.18
Jul 23, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Venezia 1.05 · Draw 10.23 · Vis Pesaro 20.33
- Implied 1X2 · Venezia 86.6% · Draw 8.9% · Vis Pesaro 4.5%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Jul 23, 2026 · 15:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Venezia 1.05 · Draw 10.23 · Vis Pesaro 20.33
- Implied 1X2 · Venezia 86.6% · Draw 8.9% · Vis Pesaro 4.5%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Jul 23, 2026 · 15:30 UTC Kickoff
FT Full-time result Venezia win · 8–0
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait

Outcome Validated

Pre-match metrics (historical context)

Prediction Reliability 26/100 · Low

Validation: Fail
Large market gap (46 pp)

Evidence ★★★★★

No strong statistical edge
Market strongly disagrees on price
Validation failed

Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100

Monitoring Confidence 7/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 13:38 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1449485

Closing Odds 1.05

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Venezia win · Venezia 8–0 Vis Pesaro

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?: This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?: xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?: Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?: Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Model favours Venezia; market prices Venezia instead — inputs may be missing or stale.

Model: Venezia 1.42 xG vs Vis Pesaro 1.18 → Venezia 40.9%
Market: Venezia ~86.6% implied
Validation failed — do not treat 1X2 EV as actionable.

Do not act on 1X2 value until validation passes. Structural leans (O/U, BTTS) need separate odds review.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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