Prediction Audit: Ajka vs Csakvar Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Ajka

Jul 18, 2026 - 08:00

0 1.35

2 1.25

xG Accuracy: 56%

Csakvar

The model missed the final outcome (Csakvar win 0–2).

The model had projected Ajka at 37.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Ajka Csakvar ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-2 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Outcome	Model	Closing Market	Difference	Signal
Ajka	37.5%	37.5%	+0.0 pp	Aligned
Draw	29.6%	29.4%	+0.2 pp	Aligned
Csakvar	32.9%	33.0%	-0.2 pp	Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Csakvar win 0–2.

Market Assessment

The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.

Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.

Post Match Insights

What worked

Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
1X2: model leaned Ajka; match finished Csakvar

Market lesson

The full-time result was Csakvar win 0–2, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

Jul 18, 2026 · 19:34 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Ajka 37.6% · Draw 29.6% · Csakvar 32.9%
- xG · Ajka 1.35 — Csakvar 1.25
Jul 18, 2026 · 07:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Ajka 2.37 · Draw 3.02 · Csakvar 2.69
- Implied 1X2 · Ajka 37.5% · Draw 29.4% · Csakvar 33.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Jul 18, 2026 · 07:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Ajka 2.37 · Draw 3.02 · Csakvar 2.69
- Implied 1X2 · Ajka 37.5% · Draw 29.4% · Csakvar 33.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Jul 18, 2026 · 08:00 UTC Kickoff
FT Full-time result Csakvar win · 0–2
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe

Historical Decision No Primary Bet

Outcome Missed

Pre-match metrics (historical context)

Prediction Reliability 79/100 · High

Validation: Pass

Evidence ★★★★★

No strong statistical edge
Direction agrees with model lean
Validation passed

Market Compatibility 99/100

Betting Confidence 82/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 16:53 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1476843

Closing Odds 2.69

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Csakvar win · Ajka 0–2 Csakvar

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?: This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?: xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?: Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?: Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: Club Friendlies
Fixture: Ajka vs Csákvár
Kickoff: 2026-07-18 08:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 35.0% · Draw 35.0% · Away 30.0%
xG (showing): Ajka 1.35 — Csákvár 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
Structural leans (not bets): See the Over/Under and BTTS cards for any directional lean text.
BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
Correct score (top bin): N/A

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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