Predictions / Football / World. Friendlies Clubs / Odra Opole vs Maccabi Netanya

Prediction Audit: Odra Opole vs Maccabi Netanya Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Odra Opole Odra Opole
Jul 15, 2026 - 14:00
2 1.31
4 1.29
xG Accuracy: 39%
Maccabi Netanya Maccabi Netanya

The model missed the final outcome (Maccabi Netanya win 2–4).

The model had projected Odra Opole at 35.6%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (6 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Odra Opole Maccabi Netanya ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-4 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Broadly Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned.

Largest probability gap: Maccabi Netanya -4.5 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Odra Opole 35.6% 32.3% +3.3 pp Aligned
Draw 29.6% 28.5% +1.1 pp Aligned
Maccabi Netanya 34.7% 39.2% -4.5 pp Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Maccabi Netanya win 2–4.

Market Assessment

The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.

  • Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 6 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (6 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned Odra Opole; match finished Maccabi Netanya

Market lesson

The full-time result was Maccabi Netanya win 2–4, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jul 15, 2026 · 19:20 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Odra Opole 35.6% · Draw 29.7% · Maccabi Netanya 34.7%
    • xG · Odra Opole 1.31 — Maccabi Netanya 1.29
  2. Jul 15, 2026 · 13:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Odra Opole 2.75 · Draw 3.12 · Maccabi Netanya 2.27
    • Implied 1X2 · Odra Opole 32.3% · Draw 28.5% · Maccabi Netanya 39.2%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Jul 15, 2026 · 13:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Odra Opole 2.75 · Draw 3.12 · Maccabi Netanya 2.27
    • Implied 1X2 · Odra Opole 32.3% · Draw 28.5% · Maccabi Netanya 39.2%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Jul 15, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Maccabi Netanya win · 2–4
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 77/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Market Compatibility 26/100
Monitoring Confidence 34/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 24, 2026 · 21:28 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1644755

Closing Odds 2.27
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Maccabi Netanya win · Odra Opole 2–4 Maccabi Netanya
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Club Friendlies
  • Fixture: Odra Opole vs Maccabi Netanya
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-15 14:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 35.0% · Draw 35.0% · Away 30.0%
  • xG (showing): Odra Opole 1.31 — Maccabi Netanya 1.29 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): See the Over/Under and BTTS cards for any directional lean text.
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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