Predictions / Football / Turkey. Süper Lig / Alanyaspor vs Erzurum BB

Prediction Audit: Alanyaspor vs Erzurum BB Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Alanyaspor Alanyaspor
Oct 10, 2026 - 13:00
0 1.35
0 0.93
xG Accuracy: 53%
Erzurum BB Erzurum BB

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 0–0).

The model had projected Alanyaspor at 45.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Alanyaspor Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-0, 1-1, 0-0, 0-1, 2-0 0-0 ✔ Correct

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 0–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • 1X2: model leaned Alanyaspor; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The full-time result was Draw 0–0, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Oct 10, 2026 · 19:34 UTC Forecast generated
    • xG · Alanyaspor 1.35 — Erzurum BB 0.93
  2. Oct 10, 2026 · 13:00 UTC Kickoff
  3. FT Full-time result Draw · 0–0
  4. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  5. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Pending
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation pending
Market Compatibility 100/100
Betting Confidence 59/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Oct 05, 2026 · 02:08 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-13211107

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Alanyaspor 0–0 Erzurum BB
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Süper Lig
  • Fixture: Alanyaspor vs Erzurum BB
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-10 13:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 45.0% · Draw 45.0% · Away 10.0%
  • xG (showing): Alanyaspor 1.35 — Erzurum BB 0.93 (total xG ≈ 2.28)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): See the Over/Under and BTTS cards for any directional lean text.
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 11, 2026 (UTC)

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Süper Lig Süper Lig — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Amed 6 4 1 1 13
2 Galatasaray 6 4 1 1 13
3 Besiktas 6 4 0 2 12
4 Kocaelispor 6 4 0 2 12
5 Alanyaspor 6 3 2 1 11
6 Fenerbahce 6 3 1 2 10
7 Trabzonspor 6 3 1 2 10
8 Kasimpasa 6 2 4 0 10
9 Rizespor 6 3 1 2 10
10 Gazişehir Gaziantep 6 2 2 2 8
11 Yeni Çorumspor 6 2 1 3 7
12 Istanbul Basaksehir 6 2 1 3 7
13 Genclerbirligi 6 2 1 3 7
14 Erzurum BB 6 2 1 3 7
15 Konyaspor 6 1 1 4 4
16 Samsunspor 6 1 1 4 4
17 Goztepe 6 0 3 3 3
18 Eyüpspor 6 1 0 5 3
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Fenerbahce 6 16 6 +10 10
2 Amed 6 15 7 +8 13
3 Besiktas 6 14 7 +7 12
4 Trabzonspor 6 13 5 +8 10
5 Galatasaray 6 13 10 +3 13
6 Yeni Çorumspor 6 13 12 +1 7
7 Goztepe 6 11 15 -4 3
8 Istanbul Basaksehir 6 10 11 -1 7
9 Alanyaspor 6 8 6 +2 11
10 Kocaelispor 6 7 4 +3 12
11 Kasimpasa 6 7 5 +2 10
12 Rizespor 6 7 6 +1 10
13 Gazişehir Gaziantep 6 7 7 0 8
14 Samsunspor 6 6 12 -6 4
15 Genclerbirligi 6 5 13 -8 7
16 Konyaspor 6 4 8 -4 4
17 Erzurum BB 6 3 11 -8 7
18 Eyüpspor 6 2 16 -14 3
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Fenerbahce 6 14.5 5.7 +8.8 10
2 Galatasaray 6 14.1 5.6 +8.5 13
3 Besiktas 6 11.4 4.5 +6.9 12
4 Amed 6 12.5 6.5 +6.0 13
5 Trabzonspor 6 12.0 10.0 +2.0 10
6 Goztepe 6 12.5 11.5 +1.0 3
7 Rizespor 6 9.3 8.7 +0.6 10
8 Istanbul Basaksehir 6 8.7 8.7 0.0 7
9 Yeni Çorumspor 6 9.7 10.3 -0.6 7
10 Alanyaspor 6 8.2 8.8 -0.6 11
11 Kasimpasa 6 6.9 8.3 -1.4 10
12 Konyaspor 6 5.1 6.9 -1.8 4
13 Samsunspor 6 7.9 10.9 -3.0 4
14 Kocaelispor 6 7.5 10.6 -3.1 12
15 Gazişehir Gaziantep 6 7.6 10.8 -3.2 8
16 Erzurum BB 6 4.4 8.1 -3.7 7
17 Eyüpspor 6 4.8 12.2 -7.4 3
18 Genclerbirligi 6 6.5 15.5 -9.0 7
Süper Lig Turkey. Süper Lig Predictions