Predictions / Football / Turkey. Süper Lig / Besiktas vs Yeni Çorumspor

Prediction Audit: Besiktas vs Yeni Çorumspor Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Besiktas Besiktas
Aug 31, 2026 - 18:30
6 1.36
2 0.97
xG Accuracy: 21%
Yeni Çorumspor Yeni Çorumspor

AI correctly predicted the Besiktas win.

The match finished 6–2, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (8 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Besiktas Besiktas ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-0, 1-1, 0-0, 0-1, 2-0 6-2 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Besiktas higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Besiktas -19.5 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Besiktas 48.7% 68.2% -19.5 pp Market Higher
Draw 28.8% 19.2% +9.6 pp Model Higher
Yeni Çorumspor 22.5% 12.6% +9.9 pp Model Higher

The closing market estimates Besiktas's win probability at 68.2%, compared with the model's estimate of 48.7%, a difference of 19.5 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Besiktas win 6–2).

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Besiktas than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Besiktas attacking xG significantly stronger (1.36 vs 0.97)

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (8 goals)

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Besiktas higher (68.2% vs model 48.7%, 19.5 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Besiktas win 6–2).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 31, 2026 · 19:22 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Besiktas 48.8% · Draw 28.8% · Yeni Çorumspor 22.5%
    • xG · Besiktas 1.36 — Yeni Çorumspor 0.97
  2. Aug 31, 2026 · 18:00 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Besiktas 1.41 · Draw 4.91 · Yeni Çorumspor 7.80
    • Implied 1X2 · Besiktas 68.1% · Draw 19.6% · Yeni Çorumspor 12.3%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 31, 2026 · 18:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Besiktas 1.41 · Draw 5.00 · Yeni Çorumspor 7.66
    • Implied 1X2 · Besiktas 68.2% · Draw 19.2% · Yeni Çorumspor 12.6%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 31, 2026 · 18:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Besiktas win · 6–2
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 53/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (19 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 2/100
Betting Confidence 42/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 25, 2026 · 03:29 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-5404889

Closing Odds 1.41
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Besiktas win · Besiktas 6–2 Yeni Çorumspor
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Süper Lig
  • Fixture: Besiktas vs Yeni Çorumspor
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-31 18:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 48.8% · Draw 28.8% · Away 22.5%
  • xG (showing): Besiktas 1.36 — Yeni Çorumspor 0.97 (total xG ≈ 2.33)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 58.8% · Over 2.5 41.2%); BTTS No (Yes 47.8% · No 52.2%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No
  • BTTS (model): Yes 47.8% · No 52.2%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-0 (13.2%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Süper Lig Süper Lig — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Amed 6 4 1 1 13
2 Galatasaray 6 4 1 1 13
3 Besiktas 6 4 0 2 12
4 Kocaelispor 6 4 0 2 12
5 Alanyaspor 6 3 2 1 11
6 Fenerbahce 6 3 1 2 10
7 Trabzonspor 6 3 1 2 10
8 Kasimpasa 6 2 4 0 10
9 Rizespor 6 3 1 2 10
10 Gazişehir Gaziantep 6 2 2 2 8
11 Yeni Çorumspor 6 2 1 3 7
12 Istanbul Basaksehir 6 2 1 3 7
13 Genclerbirligi 6 2 1 3 7
14 Erzurum BB 6 2 1 3 7
15 Konyaspor 6 1 1 4 4
16 Samsunspor 6 1 1 4 4
17 Goztepe 6 0 3 3 3
18 Eyüpspor 6 1 0 5 3
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Fenerbahce 6 16 6 +10 10
2 Amed 6 15 7 +8 13
3 Besiktas 6 14 7 +7 12
4 Trabzonspor 6 13 5 +8 10
5 Galatasaray 6 13 10 +3 13
6 Yeni Çorumspor 6 13 12 +1 7
7 Goztepe 6 11 15 -4 3
8 Istanbul Basaksehir 6 10 11 -1 7
9 Alanyaspor 6 8 6 +2 11
10 Kocaelispor 6 7 4 +3 12
11 Kasimpasa 6 7 5 +2 10
12 Rizespor 6 7 6 +1 10
13 Gazişehir Gaziantep 6 7 7 0 8
14 Samsunspor 6 6 12 -6 4
15 Genclerbirligi 6 5 13 -8 7
16 Konyaspor 6 4 8 -4 4
17 Erzurum BB 6 3 11 -8 7
18 Eyüpspor 6 2 16 -14 3
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Fenerbahce 6 13.6 4.2 +9.4 10
2 Galatasaray 6 11.7 5.1 +6.6 13
3 Besiktas 6 9.1 3.0 +6.1 12
4 Amed 6 10.4 6.0 +4.4 13
5 Trabzonspor 6 10.0 8.6 +1.4 10
6 Goztepe 6 12.5 11.5 +1.0 3
7 Kasimpasa 6 6.4 5.9 +0.5 10
8 Rizespor 6 7.8 7.8 0.0 10
9 Alanyaspor 6 7.3 7.4 -0.1 11
10 Istanbul Basaksehir 6 7.6 8.2 -0.6 7
11 Konyaspor 6 4.7 5.8 -1.1 4
12 Yeni Çorumspor 6 7.4 8.9 -1.5 7
13 Gazişehir Gaziantep 6 6.2 8.4 -2.2 8
14 Samsunspor 6 6.5 8.9 -2.4 4
15 Kocaelispor 6 6.0 8.4 -2.4 12
16 Erzurum BB 6 3.0 7.2 -4.2 7
17 Genclerbirligi 6 6.0 13.4 -7.4 7
18 Eyüpspor 6 4.8 12.2 -7.4 3