Predictions / Football / Turkey. Süper Lig / Trabzonspor vs Istanbul Basaksehir

Prediction Audit: Trabzonspor vs Istanbul Basaksehir Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Trabzonspor Trabzonspor
Aug 23, 2026 - 16:00
2 0.96
1 1.82
xG Accuracy: 60%
Istanbul Basaksehir Istanbul Basaksehir

The model missed the final outcome (Trabzonspor win 2–1).

The model had projected Istanbul Basaksehir at 56.2%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Istanbul Basaksehir Trabzonspor ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 0-1, 1-1, 0-2, 1-2, 0-3 2-1 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The model rates Istanbul Basaksehir considerably stronger than the closing betting market.

Largest probability gap: Istanbul Basaksehir +30.9 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Trabzonspor 18.2% 48.8% -30.6 pp Market Higher
Draw 25.6% 25.9% -0.3 pp Aligned
Istanbul Basaksehir 56.2% 25.3% +30.9 pp Model Edge

The statistical model estimates Istanbul Basaksehir's win probability at 56.2%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 25.3%, a difference of 30.9 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.

After full time, the result was Trabzonspor win 2–1.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.78) — 3 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • 1X2: model leaned Istanbul Basaksehir; match finished Trabzonspor
  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Istanbul Basaksehir by 30.9 percentage points (25.3% vs model 56.2%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 23, 2026 · 19:32 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Trabzonspor 18.2% · Draw 25.6% · Istanbul Basaksehir 56.2%
    • xG · Trabzonspor 0.96 — Istanbul Basaksehir 1.82
  2. Aug 23, 2026 · 15:34 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Trabzonspor 1.98 · Draw 3.73 · Istanbul Basaksehir 3.82
    • Implied 1X2 · Trabzonspor 48.8% · Draw 25.9% · Istanbul Basaksehir 25.3%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 23, 2026 · 15:58 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
    • 1X2 odds · Trabzonspor 1.98 · Draw 3.73 · Istanbul Basaksehir 3.82
    • Implied 1X2 · Trabzonspor 48.8% · Draw 25.9% · Istanbul Basaksehir 25.3%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 23, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Trabzonspor win · 2–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 34/100 · Low
  • Validation: Fail
  • Large market gap (31 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • Statistical edge detected
  • Market strongly disagrees on price
  • Validation failed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Monitoring Confidence 9/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 17, 2026 · 01:37 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-4368122

Closing Odds 3.82
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Trabzonspor win · Trabzonspor 2–1 Istanbul Basaksehir
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Model favours Istanbul Basaksehir; market prices Trabzonspor instead — inputs may be missing or stale.

  • Model: Trabzonspor 0.96 xG vs Istanbul Basaksehir 1.82 → Istanbul Basaksehir 56.2%
  • Market: Trabzonspor ~25.3% implied
  • Validation failed — do not treat 1X2 EV as actionable.

Do not act on 1X2 value until validation passes. Structural leans (O/U, BTTS) need separate odds review.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Süper Lig Süper Lig — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Amed 6 4 1 1 13
2 Galatasaray 6 4 1 1 13
3 Besiktas 6 4 0 2 12
4 Kocaelispor 6 4 0 2 12
5 Alanyaspor 6 3 2 1 11
6 Fenerbahce 6 3 1 2 10
7 Trabzonspor 6 3 1 2 10
8 Kasimpasa 6 2 4 0 10
9 Rizespor 6 3 1 2 10
10 Gazişehir Gaziantep 6 2 2 2 8
11 Yeni Çorumspor 6 2 1 3 7
12 Istanbul Basaksehir 6 2 1 3 7
13 Genclerbirligi 6 2 1 3 7
14 Erzurum BB 6 2 1 3 7
15 Konyaspor 6 1 1 4 4
16 Samsunspor 6 1 1 4 4
17 Goztepe 6 0 3 3 3
18 Eyüpspor 6 1 0 5 3
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Fenerbahce 6 16 6 +10 10
2 Amed 6 15 7 +8 13
3 Besiktas 6 14 7 +7 12
4 Trabzonspor 6 13 5 +8 10
5 Galatasaray 6 13 10 +3 13
6 Yeni Çorumspor 6 13 12 +1 7
7 Goztepe 6 11 15 -4 3
8 Istanbul Basaksehir 6 10 11 -1 7
9 Alanyaspor 6 8 6 +2 11
10 Kocaelispor 6 7 4 +3 12
11 Kasimpasa 6 7 5 +2 10
12 Rizespor 6 7 6 +1 10
13 Gazişehir Gaziantep 6 7 7 0 8
14 Samsunspor 6 6 12 -6 4
15 Genclerbirligi 6 5 13 -8 7
16 Konyaspor 6 4 8 -4 4
17 Erzurum BB 6 3 11 -8 7
18 Eyüpspor 6 2 16 -14 3
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Fenerbahce 6 13.6 4.2 +9.4 10
2 Galatasaray 6 11.7 5.1 +6.6 13
3 Besiktas 6 9.1 3.0 +6.1 12
4 Amed 6 10.4 6.0 +4.4 13
5 Trabzonspor 6 10.0 8.6 +1.4 10
6 Goztepe 6 12.5 11.5 +1.0 3
7 Kasimpasa 6 6.4 5.9 +0.5 10
8 Rizespor 6 7.8 7.8 0.0 10
9 Alanyaspor 6 7.3 7.4 -0.1 11
10 Istanbul Basaksehir 6 7.6 8.2 -0.6 7
11 Konyaspor 6 4.7 5.8 -1.1 4
12 Yeni Çorumspor 6 7.4 8.9 -1.5 7
13 Gazişehir Gaziantep 6 6.2 8.4 -2.2 8
14 Samsunspor 6 6.5 8.9 -2.4 4
15 Kocaelispor 6 6.0 8.4 -2.4 12
16 Erzurum BB 6 3.0 7.2 -4.2 7
17 Genclerbirligi 6 6.0 13.4 -7.4 7
18 Eyüpspor 6 4.8 12.2 -7.4 3