AI correctly predicted the Independiente del Valle win.
The match finished 1–0, validating the model's directional assessment.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Independiente del Valle Independiente del Valle ✔ Correct
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 2-0, 0-1 1-0 ✔ Correct
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Independiente del Valle | 44.3% | 79.4% | -35.1 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.0% | 13.1% | +15.9 pp | Model Edge |
| Manta FC | 26.6% | 7.4% | +19.2 pp | Model Edge |
The closing market estimates Independiente del Valle's win probability at 79.4%, compared with the model's estimate of 44.3%, a difference of 35.1 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Independiente del Valle win 1–0).
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Independiente del Valle attacking xG significantly stronger (1.49 vs 1.11)
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
- Exact score 1–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Independiente del Valle higher (79.4% vs model 44.3%, 35.1 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Independiente del Valle win 1–0).
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Jul 30, 2026 · 01:11 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Independiente del Valle 44.3% · Draw 29.0% · Manta FC 26.7%
- xG · Independiente del Valle 1.49 — Manta FC 1.11
-
Jul 29, 2026 · 23:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Independiente del Valle 1.12 · Draw 6.77 · Manta FC 11.97
- Implied 1X2 · Independiente del Valle 79.4% · Draw 13.1% · Manta FC 7.4%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Jul 29, 2026 · 23:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Independiente del Valle 1.12 · Draw 6.77 · Manta FC 11.97
- Implied 1X2 · Independiente del Valle 79.4% · Draw 13.1% · Manta FC 7.4%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Jul 30, 2026 · 00:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Independiente del Valle win · 1–0
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Fail
- Large market gap (35 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Market strongly disagrees on price
- Validation failed
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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