Prediction Audit: SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Fortuna Düsseldorf Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

SSV Jahn Regensburg

Sep 15, 2026 - 17:00

1 1.79

2 1.20

xG Accuracy: 65%

Fortuna Düsseldorf

The model missed the final outcome (Fortuna Düsseldorf win 1–2).

The model had projected SSV Jahn Regensburg at 49.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
1X2 SSV Jahn Regensburg Fortuna Düsseldorf ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 2-1, 1-0, 2-0, 1-2 1-2 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Outcome	Model	Closing Market	Difference	Signal
SSV Jahn Regensburg	49.8%	31.8%	+18.0 pp	Model Edge
Draw	26.0%	26.2%	-0.2 pp	Aligned
Fortuna Düsseldorf	24.2%	42.0%	-17.8 pp	Market Higher

The statistical model estimates SSV Jahn Regensburg's win probability at 49.8%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 31.8%, a difference of 18.0 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Fortuna Düsseldorf win 1–2.

Market Assessment

The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on SSV Jahn Regensburg.

The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.
Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.99) — 3 goals materialised
Exact score 1–2 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on SSV Jahn Regensburg by 18.0 percentage points (31.8% vs model 49.8%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

Sep 15, 2026 · 17:00 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · SSV Jahn Regensburg 49.8% · Draw 26.1% · Fortuna Düsseldorf 24.2%
- xG · SSV Jahn Regensburg 1.79 — Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.20
Sep 15, 2026 · 16:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · SSV Jahn Regensburg 3.00 · Draw 3.63 · Fortuna Düsseldorf 2.27
- Implied 1X2 · SSV Jahn Regensburg 31.8% · Draw 26.2% · Fortuna Düsseldorf 42.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Sep 15, 2026 · 16:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · SSV Jahn Regensburg 3.00 · Draw 3.63 · Fortuna Düsseldorf 2.27
- Implied 1X2 · SSV Jahn Regensburg 31.8% · Draw 26.2% · Fortuna Düsseldorf 42.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Sep 15, 2026 · 17:00 UTC Kickoff
FT Full-time result Fortuna Düsseldorf win · 1–2
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor

Historical Decision Monitor

Outcome Missed

Pre-match metrics (historical context)

Prediction Reliability 54/100 · Moderate

Validation: Warning
Large market gap (18 pp)

Evidence ★★★★★

Statistical edge detected
Pricing remains divergent
Validation warning

Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 3/100

Monitoring Confidence 19/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 09, 2026 · 02:29 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7702994

Closing Odds 3.0

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Fortuna Düsseldorf win · SSV Jahn Regensburg 1–2 Fortuna Düsseldorf

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?: This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?: xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?: Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?: Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: 3. Liga
Fixture: SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Fortuna Düsseldorf
Kickoff: 2026-09-15 17:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 49.8% · Draw 26.1% · Away 24.2%
xG (showing): SSV Jahn Regensburg 1.79 — Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.2 (total xG ≈ 2.99)
Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): SSV Jahn Regensburg
Model: 49.8% · Implied: 31.8% · Probability edge: +18.0 pts · Est. EV: +7.1%
BTTS (model): Yes 59.6% · No 40.4%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (10.8%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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3. Liga — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	MSV Duisburg	7	6	0	1	18
2	FC Viktoria Köln	7	5	0	2	15
3	Rot-Weiß Essen	7	4	2	1	14
4	FC Saarbrücken	7	4	1	2	13
5	Hoffenheim II	7	4	1	2	13
6	Hansa Rostock	7	3	3	1	12
7	Alemannia Aachen	7	3	2	2	11
8	Preußen Münster	7	3	2	2	11
9	Waldhof Mannheim	7	3	1	3	10
10	Fortuna Düsseldorf	7	3	1	3	10
11	Verl	7	3	1	3	10
12	Fortuna Köln	7	2	3	2	9
13	SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach	7	2	2	3	8
14	FC Ingolstadt 04	7	2	2	3	8
15	Stuttgart II	7	2	1	4	7
16	Würzburger Kickers	7	2	1	4	7
17	SV Meppen	7	2	0	5	6
18	SSV Jahn Regensburg	7	1	2	4	5
19	SV Wehen	7	1	2	4	5
20	Havelse	7	1	1	5	4

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	MSV Duisburg	7	19	7	+12	18
2	FC Viktoria Köln	7	19	9	+10	15
3	FC Saarbrücken	7	19	12	+7	13
4	Hansa Rostock	7	15	15	0	12
5	Hoffenheim II	7	14	8	+6	13
6	Rot-Weiß Essen	7	13	9	+4	14
7	SSV Jahn Regensburg	7	13	17	-4	5
8	Preußen Münster	7	12	13	-1	11
9	Stuttgart II	7	12	15	-3	7
10	Alemannia Aachen	7	11	8	+3	11
11	Waldhof Mannheim	7	11	10	+1	10
12	Würzburger Kickers	7	11	15	-4	7
13	Verl	7	10	13	-3	10
14	Havelse	7	10	15	-5	4
15	Fortuna Köln	7	8	8	0	9
16	SV Meppen	7	8	15	-7	6
17	FC Ingolstadt 04	7	7	11	-4	8
18	Fortuna Düsseldorf	7	6	7	-1	10
19	SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach	7	6	9	-3	8
20	SV Wehen	7	5	13	-8	5