Predictions / Football / Germany. 3. Liga / SV Wehen vs Waldhof Mannheim

Prediction Audit: SV Wehen vs Waldhof Mannheim Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

SV Wehen SV Wehen
Sep 13, 2026 - 14:30
0 1.40
1 1.88
xG Accuracy: 53%
Waldhof Mannheim Waldhof Mannheim

AI correctly predicted the Waldhof Mannheim win.

The match finished 0–1, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Waldhof Mannheim Waldhof Mannheim ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-2, 0-1, 2-1, 0-2 0-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The model rates Waldhof Mannheim considerably stronger than the closing betting market.

Largest probability gap: Waldhof Mannheim +15.5 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
SV Wehen 27.4% 42.0% -14.5 pp Market Higher
Draw 25.0% 26.0% -0.9 pp Aligned
Waldhof Mannheim 47.5% 32.1% +15.5 pp Model Edge

The statistical model estimates Waldhof Mannheim's win probability at 47.5%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 32.1%, a difference of 15.5 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Waldhof Mannheim win 0–1).

Market Assessment

The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Waldhof Mannheim.

  • The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.
  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Waldhof Mannheim attacking xG significantly stronger (1.88 vs 1.40)
  • Exact score 0–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (1 goals)

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Waldhof Mannheim more conservatively (32.0% vs model 47.5%, 15.5 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Waldhof Mannheim win 0–1).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 13, 2026 · 14:29 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · SV Wehen 27.4% · Draw 25.0% · Waldhof Mannheim 47.6%
    • xG · SV Wehen 1.40 — Waldhof Mannheim 1.88
  2. Sep 13, 2026 · 14:20 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE10
    • 1X2 odds · SV Wehen 2.27 · Draw 3.67 · Waldhof Mannheim 2.97
    • Implied 1X2 · SV Wehen 42.0% · Draw 26.0% · Waldhof Mannheim 32.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 13, 2026 · 14:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · SV Wehen 2.27 · Draw 3.67 · Waldhof Mannheim 2.97
    • Implied 1X2 · SV Wehen 42.0% · Draw 26.0% · Waldhof Mannheim 32.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 13, 2026 · 14:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Waldhof Mannheim win · 0–1
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 55/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (15 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • Statistical edge detected
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 7/100
Monitoring Confidence 19/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 07, 2026 · 01:50 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7445618

Closing Odds 2.97
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Waldhof Mannheim win · SV Wehen 0–1 Waldhof Mannheim
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: 3. Liga
  • Fixture: SV Wehen vs Waldhof Mannheim
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-13 14:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 27.5% · Draw 25.0% · Away 47.6%
  • xG (showing): SV Wehen 1.4 — Waldhof Mannheim 1.88 (total xG ≈ 3.28)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Waldhof Mannheim
  • Model: 47.6% · Implied: 32.1% · Probability edge: +15.5 pts · Est. EV: +11.2%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 65.1% · No 34.9%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (9.9%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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3. Liga 3. Liga — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 MSV Duisburg 7 6 0 1 18
2 FC Viktoria Köln 7 5 0 2 15
3 Rot-Weiß Essen 7 4 2 1 14
4 FC Saarbrücken 7 4 1 2 13
5 Hoffenheim II 7 4 1 2 13
6 Hansa Rostock 7 3 3 1 12
7 Alemannia Aachen 7 3 2 2 11
8 Preußen Münster 7 3 2 2 11
9 Waldhof Mannheim 7 3 1 3 10
10 Fortuna Düsseldorf 7 3 1 3 10
11 Verl 7 3 1 3 10
12 Fortuna Köln 7 2 3 2 9
13 SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach 7 2 2 3 8
14 FC Ingolstadt 04 7 2 2 3 8
15 Stuttgart II 7 2 1 4 7
16 Würzburger Kickers 7 2 1 4 7
17 SV Meppen 7 2 0 5 6
18 SSV Jahn Regensburg 7 1 2 4 5
19 SV Wehen 7 1 2 4 5
20 Havelse 7 1 1 5 4
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 MSV Duisburg 7 19 7 +12 18
2 FC Viktoria Köln 7 19 9 +10 15
3 FC Saarbrücken 7 19 12 +7 13
4 Hansa Rostock 7 15 15 0 12
5 Hoffenheim II 7 14 8 +6 13
6 Rot-Weiß Essen 7 13 9 +4 14
7 SSV Jahn Regensburg 7 13 17 -4 5
8 Preußen Münster 7 12 13 -1 11
9 Stuttgart II 7 12 15 -3 7
10 Alemannia Aachen 7 11 8 +3 11
11 Waldhof Mannheim 7 11 10 +1 10
12 Würzburger Kickers 7 11 15 -4 7
13 Verl 7 10 13 -3 10
14 Havelse 7 10 15 -5 4
15 Fortuna Köln 7 8 8 0 9
16 SV Meppen 7 8 15 -7 6
17 FC Ingolstadt 04 7 7 11 -4 8
18 Fortuna Düsseldorf 7 6 7 -1 10
19 SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach 7 6 9 -3 8
20 SV Wehen 7 5 13 -8 5