Prediction Audit: Hansa Rostock vs SV Wehen Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Hansa Rostock

Sep 05, 2026 - 12:00

1 1.99

1 1.39

xG Accuracy: 68%

SV Wehen

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).

The model had projected Hansa Rostock at 50.3%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Hansa Rostock Draw ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 2-1, 1-0, 2-0, 1-2 1-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Outcome	Model	Closing Market	Difference	Signal
Hansa Rostock	50.3%	55.7%	-5.4 pp	Market Higher
Draw	24.2%	22.7%	+1.5 pp	Aligned
SV Wehen	25.6%	21.6%	+4.0 pp	Aligned

The closing market estimates Hansa Rostock's win probability at 55.7%, compared with the model's estimate of 50.3%, a difference of 5.4 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.

After full time, the result was Draw 1–1.

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on Hansa Rostock. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (2 goals)
1X2: model leaned Hansa Rostock; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Hansa Rostock by 5.4 percentage points (55.7% vs model 50.3%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

Sep 05, 2026 · 11:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Hansa Rostock 50.3% · Draw 24.2% · SV Wehen 25.6%
- xG · Hansa Rostock 1.99 — SV Wehen 1.39
Sep 05, 2026 · 11:34 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Hansa Rostock 1.70 · Draw 4.17 · SV Wehen 4.38
- Implied 1X2 · Hansa Rostock 55.7% · Draw 22.7% · SV Wehen 21.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Sep 05, 2026 · 11:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
- 1X2 odds · Hansa Rostock 1.70 · Draw 4.17 · SV Wehen 4.38
- Implied 1X2 · Hansa Rostock 55.7% · Draw 22.7% · SV Wehen 21.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Sep 05, 2026 · 12:00 UTC Kickoff
FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe

Historical Decision No Primary Bet

Outcome Missed

Pre-match metrics (historical context)

Prediction Reliability 76/100 · High

Validation: Pass

Evidence ★★★★★

Moderate model lean
Direction agrees with model lean
Validation passed

Market Compatibility 72/100

Betting Confidence 79/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 30, 2026 · 01:43 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-6132938

Closing Odds 1.7

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Draw · Hansa Rostock 1–1 SV Wehen

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?: This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?: xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?: Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?: Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: 3. Liga
Fixture: Hansa Rostock vs SV Wehen
Kickoff: 2026-09-05 12:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 50.3% · Draw 24.2% · Away 25.6%
xG (showing): Hansa Rostock 1.99 — SV Wehen 1.39 (total xG ≈ 3.38)
Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 (Under 2.5 34.4% · Over 2.5 65.6%); BTTS Yes (Yes 66.0% · No 34.0%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 66.0% · No 34.0%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (9.4%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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3. Liga — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	MSV Duisburg	7	6	0	1	18
2	FC Viktoria Köln	7	5	0	2	15
3	Rot-Weiß Essen	7	4	2	1	14
4	FC Saarbrücken	7	4	1	2	13
5	Hoffenheim II	7	4	1	2	13
6	Hansa Rostock	7	3	3	1	12
7	Alemannia Aachen	7	3	2	2	11
8	Preußen Münster	7	3	2	2	11
9	Waldhof Mannheim	7	3	1	3	10
10	Fortuna Düsseldorf	7	3	1	3	10
11	Verl	7	3	1	3	10
12	Fortuna Köln	7	2	3	2	9
13	SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach	7	2	2	3	8
14	FC Ingolstadt 04	7	2	2	3	8
15	Stuttgart II	7	2	1	4	7
16	Würzburger Kickers	7	2	1	4	7
17	SV Meppen	7	2	0	5	6
18	SSV Jahn Regensburg	7	1	2	4	5
19	SV Wehen	7	1	2	4	5
20	Havelse	7	1	1	5	4

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	MSV Duisburg	7	19	7	+12	18
2	FC Viktoria Köln	7	19	9	+10	15
3	FC Saarbrücken	7	19	12	+7	13
4	Hansa Rostock	7	15	15	0	12
5	Hoffenheim II	7	14	8	+6	13
6	Rot-Weiß Essen	7	13	9	+4	14
7	SSV Jahn Regensburg	7	13	17	-4	5
8	Preußen Münster	7	12	13	-1	11
9	Stuttgart II	7	12	15	-3	7
10	Alemannia Aachen	7	11	8	+3	11
11	Waldhof Mannheim	7	11	10	+1	10
12	Würzburger Kickers	7	11	15	-4	7
13	Verl	7	10	13	-3	10
14	Havelse	7	10	15	-5	4
15	Fortuna Köln	7	8	8	0	9
16	SV Meppen	7	8	15	-7	6
17	FC Ingolstadt 04	7	7	11	-4	8
18	Fortuna Düsseldorf	7	6	7	-1	10
19	SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach	7	6	9	-3	8
20	SV Wehen	7	5	13	-8	5