Predictions / Football / Germany. 3. Liga / Hoffenheim II vs SSV Jahn Regensburg

Prediction Audit: Hoffenheim II vs SSV Jahn Regensburg Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Hoffenheim II Hoffenheim II
Aug 29, 2026 - 14:30
5 1.69
1 2.02
xG Accuracy: 30%
SSV Jahn Regensburg SSV Jahn Regensburg

The model missed the final outcome (Hoffenheim II win 5–1).

The model had projected SSV Jahn Regensburg at 44.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (6 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 SSV Jahn Regensburg Hoffenheim II ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-2, 1-1, 2-2, 2-1, 1-3 5-1 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The model rates SSV Jahn Regensburg considerably stronger than the closing betting market.

Largest probability gap: SSV Jahn Regensburg +5.0 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Hoffenheim II 31.7% 35.5% -3.8 pp Aligned
Draw 23.5% 24.7% -1.2 pp Aligned
SSV Jahn Regensburg 44.8% 39.8% +5.0 pp Model Higher

The statistical model estimates SSV Jahn Regensburg's win probability at 44.8%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 39.8%, a difference of 5.0 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Hoffenheim II win 5–1.

Market Assessment

The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on SSV Jahn Regensburg.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 3.71) — 6 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • 1X2: model leaned SSV Jahn Regensburg; match finished Hoffenheim II
  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on SSV Jahn Regensburg by 5.0 percentage points (39.8% vs model 44.8%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 29, 2026 · 14:35 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Hoffenheim II 31.7% · Draw 23.5% · SSV Jahn Regensburg 44.8%
    • xG · Hoffenheim II 1.69 — SSV Jahn Regensburg 2.02
  2. Aug 29, 2026 · 14:04 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Hoffenheim II 2.68 · Draw 3.85 · SSV Jahn Regensburg 2.39
    • Implied 1X2 · Hoffenheim II 35.5% · Draw 24.7% · SSV Jahn Regensburg 39.8%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 29, 2026 · 14:35 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Hoffenheim II 2.68 · Draw 3.85 · SSV Jahn Regensburg 2.39
    • Implied 1X2 · Hoffenheim II 35.5% · Draw 24.7% · SSV Jahn Regensburg 39.8%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 29, 2026 · 14:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Hoffenheim II win · 5–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 76/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Market Compatibility 74/100
Betting Confidence 79/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 23, 2026 · 03:25 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-5146631

Closing Odds 2.39
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Hoffenheim II win · Hoffenheim II 5–1 SSV Jahn Regensburg
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: 3. Liga
  • Fixture: Hoffenheim II vs SSV Jahn Regensburg
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-29 14:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 31.7% · Draw 23.5% · Away 44.8%
  • xG (showing): Hoffenheim II 1.69 — SSV Jahn Regensburg 2.02 (total xG ≈ 3.71)
  • Value headline: None (actionable) — best tracked EV is about +0.1%, still below the +2.0% minimum for a headline / default stake (no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 (Under 2.5 28.4% · Over 2.5 71.6%); BTTS Yes (Yes 71.8% · No 28.2%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 71.8% · No 28.2%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-2 (8.4%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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3. Liga 3. Liga — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 MSV Duisburg 7 6 0 1 18
2 FC Viktoria Köln 7 5 0 2 15
3 Rot-Weiß Essen 7 4 2 1 14
4 FC Saarbrücken 7 4 1 2 13
5 Hoffenheim II 7 4 1 2 13
6 Hansa Rostock 7 3 3 1 12
7 Alemannia Aachen 7 3 2 2 11
8 Preußen Münster 7 3 2 2 11
9 Waldhof Mannheim 7 3 1 3 10
10 Fortuna Düsseldorf 7 3 1 3 10
11 Verl 7 3 1 3 10
12 Fortuna Köln 7 2 3 2 9
13 SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach 7 2 2 3 8
14 FC Ingolstadt 04 7 2 2 3 8
15 Stuttgart II 7 2 1 4 7
16 Würzburger Kickers 7 2 1 4 7
17 SV Meppen 7 2 0 5 6
18 SSV Jahn Regensburg 7 1 2 4 5
19 SV Wehen 7 1 2 4 5
20 Havelse 7 1 1 5 4
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 MSV Duisburg 7 19 7 +12 18
2 FC Viktoria Köln 7 19 9 +10 15
3 FC Saarbrücken 7 19 12 +7 13
4 Hansa Rostock 7 15 15 0 12
5 Hoffenheim II 7 14 8 +6 13
6 Rot-Weiß Essen 7 13 9 +4 14
7 SSV Jahn Regensburg 7 13 17 -4 5
8 Preußen Münster 7 12 13 -1 11
9 Stuttgart II 7 12 15 -3 7
10 Alemannia Aachen 7 11 8 +3 11
11 Waldhof Mannheim 7 11 10 +1 10
12 Würzburger Kickers 7 11 15 -4 7
13 Verl 7 10 13 -3 10
14 Havelse 7 10 15 -5 4
15 Fortuna Köln 7 8 8 0 9
16 SV Meppen 7 8 15 -7 6
17 FC Ingolstadt 04 7 7 11 -4 8
18 Fortuna Düsseldorf 7 6 7 -1 10
19 SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach 7 6 9 -3 8
20 SV Wehen 7 5 13 -8 5