Predictions / Football / Germany. 3. Liga / Rot-Weiß Essen vs Havelse

Prediction Audit: Rot-Weiß Essen vs Havelse Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Rot-Weiß Essen Rot-Weiß Essen
Aug 15, 2026 - 12:00
1 2.32
0 1.40
xG Accuracy: 47%
Havelse Havelse

AI correctly predicted the Rot-Weiß Essen win.

The match finished 1–0, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Rot-Weiß Essen Rot-Weiß Essen ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 2-1, 1-1, 3-1, 2-0, 2-2 1-0 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Rot-Weiß Essen higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Rot-Weiß Essen -14.3 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Rot-Weiß Essen 57.0% 71.4% -14.3 pp Market Higher
Draw 21.6% 15.2% +6.4 pp Model Higher
Havelse 21.4% 13.4% +7.9 pp Model Higher

The closing market estimates Rot-Weiß Essen's win probability at 71.4%, compared with the model's estimate of 57.0%, a difference of 14.3 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Rot-Weiß Essen win 1–0).

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Rot-Weiß Essen than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Rot-Weiß Essen attacking xG significantly stronger (2.32 vs 1.40)

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (1 goals)

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Rot-Weiß Essen higher (71.3% vs model 57.0%, 14.3 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Rot-Weiß Essen win 1–0).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 15, 2026 · 11:58 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Rot-Weiß Essen 57.1% · Draw 21.5% · Havelse 21.4%
    • xG · Rot-Weiß Essen 2.32 — Havelse 1.40
  2. Aug 15, 2026 · 11:34 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Rot-Weiß Essen 1.32 · Draw 6.22 · Havelse 7.01
    • Implied 1X2 · Rot-Weiß Essen 71.4% · Draw 15.2% · Havelse 13.4%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 15, 2026 · 11:58 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
    • 1X2 odds · Rot-Weiß Essen 1.32 · Draw 6.22 · Havelse 7.01
    • Implied 1X2 · Rot-Weiß Essen 71.4% · Draw 15.2% · Havelse 13.4%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 15, 2026 · 12:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Rot-Weiß Essen win · 1–0
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 50/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (14 pp)
  • High xG deviation from league baseline (72%+)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • Moderate model lean
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 28/100
Betting Confidence 40/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 09, 2026 · 01:37 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3345191

Closing Odds 1.32
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Rot-Weiß Essen win · Rot-Weiß Essen 1–0 Havelse
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: 3. Liga
  • Fixture: Rot-Weiß Essen vs Havelse
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-15 12:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 57.1% · Draw 21.5% · Away 21.3%
  • xG (showing): Rot-Weiß Essen 2.32 — Havelse 1.4 (total xG ≈ 3.72)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 (Under 2.5 28.2% · Over 2.5 71.8%); BTTS Yes (Yes 69.0% · No 31.0%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 69.0% · No 31.0%
  • Correct score (top bin): 2-1 (9.1%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

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3. Liga 3. Liga — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 MSV Duisburg 7 6 0 1 18
2 FC Viktoria Köln 7 5 0 2 15
3 Rot-Weiß Essen 7 4 2 1 14
4 FC Saarbrücken 7 4 1 2 13
5 Hoffenheim II 7 4 1 2 13
6 Hansa Rostock 7 3 3 1 12
7 Alemannia Aachen 7 3 2 2 11
8 Preußen Münster 7 3 2 2 11
9 Waldhof Mannheim 7 3 1 3 10
10 Fortuna Düsseldorf 7 3 1 3 10
11 Verl 7 3 1 3 10
12 Fortuna Köln 7 2 3 2 9
13 SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach 7 2 2 3 8
14 FC Ingolstadt 04 7 2 2 3 8
15 Stuttgart II 7 2 1 4 7
16 Würzburger Kickers 7 2 1 4 7
17 SV Meppen 7 2 0 5 6
18 SSV Jahn Regensburg 7 1 2 4 5
19 SV Wehen 7 1 2 4 5
20 Havelse 7 1 1 5 4
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 MSV Duisburg 7 19 7 +12 18
2 FC Viktoria Köln 7 19 9 +10 15
3 FC Saarbrücken 7 19 12 +7 13
4 Hansa Rostock 7 15 15 0 12
5 Hoffenheim II 7 14 8 +6 13
6 Rot-Weiß Essen 7 13 9 +4 14
7 SSV Jahn Regensburg 7 13 17 -4 5
8 Preußen Münster 7 12 13 -1 11
9 Stuttgart II 7 12 15 -3 7
10 Alemannia Aachen 7 11 8 +3 11
11 Waldhof Mannheim 7 11 10 +1 10
12 Würzburger Kickers 7 11 15 -4 7
13 Verl 7 10 13 -3 10
14 Havelse 7 10 15 -5 4
15 Fortuna Köln 7 8 8 0 9
16 SV Meppen 7 8 15 -7 6
17 FC Ingolstadt 04 7 7 11 -4 8
18 Fortuna Düsseldorf 7 6 7 -1 10
19 SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach 7 6 9 -3 8
20 SV Wehen 7 5 13 -8 5