Prediction Audit: SSV Jahn Regensburg vs FC Saarbrücken Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

SSV Jahn Regensburg

Aug 16, 2026 - 14:30

0 1.92

1 1.58

xG Accuracy: 50%

FC Saarbrücken

The model missed the final outcome (FC Saarbrücken win 0–1).

The model had projected SSV Jahn Regensburg at 44.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 SSV Jahn Regensburg FC Saarbrücken ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 2-1, 1-2, 2-2, 1-0 0-1 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Outcome	Model	Closing Market	Difference	Signal
SSV Jahn Regensburg	44.8%	35.3%	+9.5 pp	Model Higher
Draw	24.4%	25.3%	-1.0 pp	Aligned
FC Saarbrücken	30.9%	39.4%	-8.5 pp	Market Higher

The statistical model estimates SSV Jahn Regensburg's win probability at 44.8%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 35.3%, a difference of 9.5 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was FC Saarbrücken win 0–1.

Market Assessment

The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on SSV Jahn Regensburg.

Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What failed

Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (1 goals)

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on SSV Jahn Regensburg by 9.5 percentage points (35.3% vs model 44.8%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

Aug 16, 2026 · 14:30 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · SSV Jahn Regensburg 44.8% · Draw 24.3% · FC Saarbrücken 30.9%
- xG · SSV Jahn Regensburg 1.92 — FC Saarbrücken 1.58
Aug 16, 2026 · 14:02 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · SSV Jahn Regensburg 2.70 · Draw 3.76 · FC Saarbrücken 2.42
- Implied 1X2 · SSV Jahn Regensburg 35.3% · Draw 25.3% · FC Saarbrücken 39.4%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Aug 16, 2026 · 14:30 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · SSV Jahn Regensburg 2.70 · Draw 3.76 · FC Saarbrücken 2.42
- Implied 1X2 · SSV Jahn Regensburg 35.3% · Draw 25.3% · FC Saarbrücken 39.4%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Aug 16, 2026 · 14:30 UTC Kickoff
FT Full-time result FC Saarbrücken win · 0–1
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor

Historical Decision Monitor

Outcome Missed

Pre-match metrics (historical context)

Prediction Reliability 74/100 · High

Validation: Pass

Evidence ★★★★★

Statistical edge detected
Direction agrees with model lean
Validation passed

Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 18/100

Monitoring Confidence 33/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 11, 2026 · 01:29 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3607980

Closing Odds 2.7

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result FC Saarbrücken win · SSV Jahn Regensburg 0–1 FC Saarbrücken

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?: This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?: xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?: Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?: Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: 3. Liga
Fixture: SSV Jahn Regensburg vs FC Saarbrücken
Kickoff: 2026-08-16 14:30:00
1X2 (model): Home 44.8% · Draw 24.3% · Away 30.9%
xG (showing): SSV Jahn Regensburg 1.92 — FC Saarbrücken 1.58 (total xG ≈ 3.5)
Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): SSV Jahn Regensburg
Model: 44.8% · Implied: 35.3% · Probability edge: +9.5 pts · Est. EV: +5.2%
BTTS (model): Yes 69.0% · No 31.1%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (9.2%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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3. Liga — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	MSV Duisburg	7	6	0	1	18
2	FC Viktoria Köln	7	5	0	2	15
3	Rot-Weiß Essen	7	4	2	1	14
4	FC Saarbrücken	7	4	1	2	13
5	Hoffenheim II	7	4	1	2	13
6	Hansa Rostock	7	3	3	1	12
7	Alemannia Aachen	7	3	2	2	11
8	Preußen Münster	7	3	2	2	11
9	Waldhof Mannheim	7	3	1	3	10
10	Fortuna Düsseldorf	7	3	1	3	10
11	Verl	7	3	1	3	10
12	Fortuna Köln	7	2	3	2	9
13	SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach	7	2	2	3	8
14	FC Ingolstadt 04	7	2	2	3	8
15	Stuttgart II	7	2	1	4	7
16	Würzburger Kickers	7	2	1	4	7
17	SV Meppen	7	2	0	5	6
18	SSV Jahn Regensburg	7	1	2	4	5
19	SV Wehen	7	1	2	4	5
20	Havelse	7	1	1	5	4

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	MSV Duisburg	7	19	7	+12	18
2	FC Viktoria Köln	7	19	9	+10	15
3	FC Saarbrücken	7	19	12	+7	13
4	Hansa Rostock	7	15	15	0	12
5	Hoffenheim II	7	14	8	+6	13
6	Rot-Weiß Essen	7	13	9	+4	14
7	SSV Jahn Regensburg	7	13	17	-4	5
8	Preußen Münster	7	12	13	-1	11
9	Stuttgart II	7	12	15	-3	7
10	Alemannia Aachen	7	11	8	+3	11
11	Waldhof Mannheim	7	11	10	+1	10
12	Würzburger Kickers	7	11	15	-4	7
13	Verl	7	10	13	-3	10
14	Havelse	7	10	15	-5	4
15	Fortuna Köln	7	8	8	0	9
16	SV Meppen	7	8	15	-7	6
17	FC Ingolstadt 04	7	7	11	-4	8
18	Fortuna Düsseldorf	7	6	7	-1	10
19	SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach	7	6	9	-3	8
20	SV Wehen	7	5	13	-8	5