Prediction Audit: Hansa Rostock vs Waldhof Mannheim Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Hansa Rostock

Aug 16, 2026 - 11:30

3 1.89

3 1.85

xG Accuracy: 54%

Waldhof Mannheim

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 3–3).

The model had projected Hansa Rostock at 39.0%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (6 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Hansa Rostock Draw ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 2-1, 1-2, 2-2, 3-1 3-3 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Outcome	Model	Closing Market	Difference	Signal
Hansa Rostock	39.0%	56.1%	-17.1 pp	Market Higher
Draw	23.6%	21.4%	+2.2 pp	Aligned
Waldhof Mannheim	37.4%	22.5%	+14.9 pp	Model Edge

The closing market estimates Hansa Rostock's win probability at 56.1%, compared with the model's estimate of 39.0%, a difference of 17.1 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Draw 3–3.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Hansa Rostock than the current fair estimate.

Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 3.74) — 6 goals materialised
Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

1X2: model leaned Hansa Rostock; match finished Draw
Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Hansa Rostock by 17.1 percentage points (56.1% vs model 39.0%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

Aug 16, 2026 · 11:30 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Hansa Rostock 38.9% · Draw 23.6% · Waldhof Mannheim 37.5%
- xG · Hansa Rostock 1.89 — Waldhof Mannheim 1.85
Aug 16, 2026 · 11:02 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Hansa Rostock 1.69 · Draw 4.43 · Waldhof Mannheim 4.22
- Implied 1X2 · Hansa Rostock 56.1% · Draw 21.4% · Waldhof Mannheim 22.5%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Aug 16, 2026 · 11:30 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Hansa Rostock 1.69 · Draw 4.43 · Waldhof Mannheim 4.22
- Implied 1X2 · Hansa Rostock 56.1% · Draw 21.4% · Waldhof Mannheim 22.5%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Aug 16, 2026 · 11:30 UTC Kickoff
FT Full-time result Draw · 3–3
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor

Historical Decision Monitor

Outcome Missed

Pre-match metrics (historical context)

Prediction Reliability 54/100 · Moderate

Validation: Warning
Large market gap (17 pp)

Evidence ★★★★★

No strong statistical edge
Pricing remains divergent
Validation warning

Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 14/100

Betting Confidence 43/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 11, 2026 · 01:04 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3602112

Closing Odds 1.69

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Draw · Hansa Rostock 3–3 Waldhof Mannheim

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?: This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?: xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?: Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?: Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: 3. Liga
Fixture: Hansa Rostock vs Waldhof Mannheim
Kickoff: 2026-08-16 11:30:00
1X2 (model): Home 38.9% · Draw 23.6% · Away 37.5%
xG (showing): Hansa Rostock 1.89 — Waldhof Mannheim 1.85 (total xG ≈ 3.74)
Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 (Under 2.5 27.9% · Over 2.5 72.1%); BTTS Yes (Yes 72.6% · No 27.4%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 72.6% · No 27.4%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (8.3%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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3. Liga — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	MSV Duisburg	7	6	0	1	18
2	FC Viktoria Köln	7	5	0	2	15
3	Rot-Weiß Essen	7	4	2	1	14
4	FC Saarbrücken	7	4	1	2	13
5	Hoffenheim II	7	4	1	2	13
6	Hansa Rostock	7	3	3	1	12
7	Alemannia Aachen	7	3	2	2	11
8	Preußen Münster	7	3	2	2	11
9	Waldhof Mannheim	7	3	1	3	10
10	Fortuna Düsseldorf	7	3	1	3	10
11	Verl	7	3	1	3	10
12	Fortuna Köln	7	2	3	2	9
13	SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach	7	2	2	3	8
14	FC Ingolstadt 04	7	2	2	3	8
15	Stuttgart II	7	2	1	4	7
16	Würzburger Kickers	7	2	1	4	7
17	SV Meppen	7	2	0	5	6
18	SSV Jahn Regensburg	7	1	2	4	5
19	SV Wehen	7	1	2	4	5
20	Havelse	7	1	1	5	4

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	MSV Duisburg	7	19	7	+12	18
2	FC Viktoria Köln	7	19	9	+10	15
3	FC Saarbrücken	7	19	12	+7	13
4	Hansa Rostock	7	15	15	0	12
5	Hoffenheim II	7	14	8	+6	13
6	Rot-Weiß Essen	7	13	9	+4	14
7	SSV Jahn Regensburg	7	13	17	-4	5
8	Preußen Münster	7	12	13	-1	11
9	Stuttgart II	7	12	15	-3	7
10	Alemannia Aachen	7	11	8	+3	11
11	Waldhof Mannheim	7	11	10	+1	10
12	Würzburger Kickers	7	11	15	-4	7
13	Verl	7	10	13	-3	10
14	Havelse	7	10	15	-5	4
15	Fortuna Köln	7	8	8	0	9
16	SV Meppen	7	8	15	-7	6
17	FC Ingolstadt 04	7	7	11	-4	8
18	Fortuna Düsseldorf	7	6	7	-1	10
19	SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach	7	6	9	-3	8
20	SV Wehen	7	5	13	-8	5